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- (13 May 2021) Brent crude oil prices will average $62.26 per barrel in 2021 and $60.74 per barrel in 2022 according to the forecast in the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). This represents a rebound from the 2020 average of $41.69 per barrel, but it is still lower than pre-COVID levels.
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Dec 14, 2022 · World oil demand is set to contract by 110 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22, reaching 100.8 mb/d, up by 130 kb/d compared with last month’s Report. Strong gasoil use in key consuming countries outweighs weak European and Asian petrochemical deliveries.
- World oil demand is forecast to reach 101.6 mb/d in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. While higher prices and a weaker economic outlook are moderating consumption increases, a resurgent China will drive gains next year, with growth accelerating from 1.8 mb/d in 2022 to 2.2 mb/d in 2023.
- Non-OPEC+ is set to lead world supply growth through next year, adding 1.9 mb/d in 2022 and 1.8 mb/d in 2023. As for OPEC+, total oil output in 2023 may fall as embargoes and sanctions shut in Russian volumes and producers outside the Middle East suffer further declines.
- Global refining capacity is set to expand by 1 mb/d in 2022 and 1.6 mb/d in 2023, boosting throughputs by 2.3 mb/d and 1.9 mb/d, respectively. Nevertheless, product markets are expected to remain tight, with a particular concern for diesel and kerosene supplies.
- Following nearly two years of declines, observed global oil inventories increased by 77 mb in April. OECD industry stocks also rose, by 42.5 mb (1.42 mb/d), helped by government stock releases of nearly 1 mb/d.
Mar 13, 2022 · (13 May 2021) Brent crude oil prices will average $62.26 per barrel in 2021 and $60.74 per barrel in 2022 according to the forecast in the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). This represents a rebound from the 2020 average of $41.69 per barrel, but it is still lower than pre-COVID levels.
- Alex Kulikov
Aug 11, 2022 · World oil demand is now forecast at 99.7 mb/d in 2022 and 101.8 mb/d in 2023. World oil supply hit a post-pandemic high of 100.5 mb/d in July as maintenance wound down in the North Sea, Canada and Kazakhstan.
- World oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.9 mb/d in 2Q22 from 4.4 mb/d in 1Q22 and is now projected to ease to 490 kb/d on average in the second half of the year on a more tempered economic expansion and higher prices.
- Russia shut in nearly 1 mb/d in April, driving down world oil supply by 710 kb/d to 98.1 mb/d. Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the US along with a slowdown in demand growth is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption.
- Global refinery margins have surged to extraordinarily high levels due to depleted product inventories and constrained refinery activity. Throughputs in April fell 1.4 mb/d to 78 mb/d, the lowest since May 2021, largely driven by China.
- Global observed oil inventories declined by a further 45 mb during March and are now a total 1.2 billion barrels lower since June 2020. In the OECD, the release of 24.7 mb of government stocks during March halted the precipitous decline in industry inventories.
By monitoring the key indicators of oil supply and demand, such as oil rig counts and activities, the energy investment outlook and crude oil price forecasts, our team of experts will share market intelligence to guide your strategic decisions.
Our crude oil price outlook is largely unchanged from last month’s outlook. Our projection for Dated Brent in second half 2021 is to average $70.75/bbl and for WTI to average $67.90/bbl. For 2022, our Dated Brent and WTI projections are $66/bbl and $63/bbl, respectively.
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