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Will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021
- The global economy and oil markets are recovering from the historic collapse in demand caused by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic in 2020. The staggering inventory surplus that built up last year is being worked off and global oil stocks, excluding strategic reserves, will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021.
www.iea.org/reports/oil-2021
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Will the global crude market have a stock surplus in 2021?
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Dec 15, 2020 · Our analysis suggests that the global crude market will have a stock surplus of 625 mb at the start of 2021 versus December 2019. If we assume that Chinese balances are neutral in 2021, the market will absorb the 183 mb located elsewhere and in July it will move into deficit versus end-2019.
Dec 14, 2021 · Preliminary data for November show industry stocks decreased by a further 23 mb, and crude oil held in short-term floating storage rose by 8.4 mb to 134.5 mb. Benchmark crude oil prices plunged by $15-17/bbl over the course of November, as concerns over Covid-19, inflation and economic growth weighed on the market.
Nov 17, 2021 · The first-quarter supply surplus is virtually wiped out, with a small stock build in January offset by further draws in February and March.
Preliminary data for October point to a marginal stock build. Oil market drivers have begun to shift and benchmark crude prices are easing as a result. Brent crude futures were trading around $81/bbl, down from a high of more than $86/bbl in October.
By monitoring the key indicators of oil supply and demand, such as oil rig counts and activities, the energy investment outlook and crude oil price forecasts, our team of experts will share market intelligence to guide your strategic decisions.
Our crude oil price outlook is largely unchanged from last month’s outlook. Our projection for Dated Brent in second half 2021 is to average $70.75/bbl and for WTI to average $67.90/bbl. For 2022, our Dated Brent and WTI projections are $66/bbl and $63/bbl, respectively.
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