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Jun 11, 2024 · We forecast that global oil inventories will begin increasing at an average of 0.4 million b/d in 2Q25 and will increase by 0.6 million b/d in the second half of 2025. As a result, we expect oil prices will increase to an average of $87/b in 4Q24 and $88/b in 1Q25.
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- World oil demand is set to contract by 110 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22, reaching 100.8 mb/d, up by 130 kb/d compared with last month’s Report. Strong gasoil use in key consuming countries outweighs weak European and Asian petrochemical deliveries.
- World oil supply fell 190 kb/d in November to 101.7 mb/d, breaking a five-month uptrend, after Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries curbed supply in line with lower OPEC+ output targets.
- Global refinery throughputs surged 2.2 mb/d in November to the highest since January 2020, resulting in sharply lower diesel and gasoline cracks and refinery margins.
- Russian oil exports increased by 270 kb/d to 8.1 mb/d, the highest since April as diesel exports rose by 300 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d. Crude oil loadings were largely unchanged m-o-m, even as shipments to the EU fell by 430 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d.
EIA forecasts crude oil prices will increase through 2024 as demand rises above supply. tags: STEO consumption/demand crude oil liquid fuels oil/petroleum prices + production/supply. Increased U.S. renewable and natural gas generation likely to reduce summer coal demand.
- World oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.9 mb/d in 2Q22 from 4.4 mb/d in 1Q22 and is now projected to ease to 490 kb/d on average in the second half of the year on a more tempered economic expansion and higher prices.
- Russia shut in nearly 1 mb/d in April, driving down world oil supply by 710 kb/d to 98.1 mb/d. Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the US along with a slowdown in demand growth is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption.
- Global refinery margins have surged to extraordinarily high levels due to depleted product inventories and constrained refinery activity. Throughputs in April fell 1.4 mb/d to 78 mb/d, the lowest since May 2021, largely driven by China.
- Global observed oil inventories declined by a further 45 mb during March and are now a total 1.2 billion barrels lower since June 2020. In the OECD, the release of 24.7 mb of government stocks during March halted the precipitous decline in industry inventories.
Aug 16, 2023 · Changes in prices send signals to the market. Prices in spot markets send a clear signal about the balance of supply and demand. Rising prices indicate that additional supply is needed, and falling prices indicate there is too much supply for current demand.
Sep 14, 2022 · World oil demand is forecast to rise by 2 mb/d in 2022 and 2.1 mb/d in 2023, marginally lower than in last month’s Report. World oil production rose 790 kb/d in August to 101.3 mb/d, with a strong recovery in Libya and smaller gains from Saudi Arabia and the UAE offset by losses in Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Russia.
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The current cycle of higher oil prices reveals two new trends, which will likely continue throughout 2022 and challenge conventional wisdom: Oil companies are more disciplined with...
