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- Global oil demand is set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, rising 5.4 mb/d in 2021 and a further 3.1 mb/d next year. The OECD accounts for 1.3 mb/d of 2022 growth while non-OECD countries contribute 1.8 mb/d.
- World oil supply is expected to grow at a faster rate in 2022, with the US driving gains of 1.6 mb/d from producers outside the OPEC+ alliance. That leaves room for OPEC+ to boost crude oil production by 1.4 mb/d above its July 2021-March 2022 target to meet demand growth.
- Global refinery throughput in 2021 is expected to recover half of the 7.4 mb/d fall in 2020, lagging behind demand growth for refined products as surplus inventories are drawn down.
- OECD industry stocks held relatively steady in April, at 2 926 mb, but fell 1.6 mb below the pre-Covid 2015-19 average for the first time in more than a year.
- Macro U.S. Picture
- Overall U.S. Forecast
- Capex Forecast
- EIA Forecast
- U.S. Forecast
- State-by-State Outlook
The Baker Hughes rotary rig count stood at 360 units during the week ending Jan. 8, 2021. That total is 55% less, or 436 rigs fewer, than were working on Jan. 3, 2020, Fig. 1.U.S. drilling activity steadily climbed for the next seven months, hitting 512 during the week ending Sept. 17. Although the 152-rig increase represents a 42% Jan.-Sept. incre...
With demand returning and oil prices firming, World Oil forecasts a moderate uptick in drilling activity for the remainder of the year, projecting 12,452 total wells for 2021—a 9% increase from the 2020 count of 11,451, Table 1.Total footage is projected to increase from 156.2 MMft in 2020 to 167.4 MMft in 2021—an increase of 7%. During 2021, 5,723...
North American spending is forecast to decrease 6.5% from 2020 levels, which is a reversal from 5.4% growth suggested by a December survey, according to James West, senior managing director at Evercore ISI. Although capex in Canada is stabilizing near current levels, with anticipated 3% growth for 2021, capex in the U.S. is expected to contract for...
The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook,published September 2021, reports that STEO remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from Covid-19. U.S. economic activity continues to rise after reaching multi-year lows in the second quarter of 2020, while U.S. GDP declined 3.4% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO ass...
Given the strong recovery in demand, and resulting increase in crude prices, operators working the various U.S. plays plan to moderately increase drilling activity for the remainder of 2021, Fig. 2. Overall, activity in the oil-rich Texas shale plays will improve in the second half of the year, with the exception of District 5, which will suffer sl...
Texas. Most of the shale plays in the Lone Star State will gain ground in 2021. On a half-over-half basis, World Oil predicts Texas wells will gain 22%, with the 2021 total being 4.5% more than the 2020 figure. In the Permian basin (Fig. 4), District 8 will be up 14% in the second half, but its total will be 5.4% less than the 2020 total. Districts...
- Outlook for global crude prices. Draws roll on in 4Q21 - 2022 balances reflect a more delicate dance. Short term tightening to endure, but 2022 looks less clear cut.
- World oil (total liquids) demand and production.
- Revisions to global supply and demand vs. April 2021 outlooks. US crude oil at the heart of global deficits. Perfect storm strikes US crude storage tanks The acceleration in global crude market tightening over the past couple of months has played out most visibly in weekly US statistics, particularly for crude.
- US export barrel and Brent forward curve (inverse values) Escape velocity: Understanding the UAE perspective that led to the OPEC+ disagreement and what it means.
Jan 4, 2022 · According to our December 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) estimates, U.S. crude oil production in 2021 decreased by 0.1 million barrels per day (b/d) from 2020 and by 1.1 million b/d from 2019.
Apr 14, 2021 · Oil prices surged more than 4% on Wednesday, after a report from the International Energy Agency, followed by U.S. inventory data boosted optimism about returning demand for crude.
May 11, 2023 · Oil demand in the U.S. appears likely to reach levels close to the pre-pandemic era, despite talk of working from home and reduced business travel.
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Jan 14, 2021 · In its January 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that annual U.S. crude oil production will average 11.1 million b/d in 2021, down 0.2 million b/d from 2020 as result of a decline in drilling activity related to low oil prices.
