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4 days ago · Our Election Models—Modus and Concordia—along with our war gaming model, Delphi, indicate that Trump is leading Biden with a combined average of +5 points. The combined models' two-party vote share is Trump 52.5% to Biden 47.5%. Combined election probabilities show that Trump has a 79.7% chance to Biden’s 20.3% to win the National Popular ...
2 days ago · Four months out from Election Day, the 2024 presidential election is a pure toss-up. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 465 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the...
- G. Elliott Morris
5 days ago · The model does this by constructing thousands of scenarios, each one containing different vote shares in each state and different values for the impact of polling biases and other characteristics.
3 days ago · Trump’s further expanded his national lead to 3.0 points in our polling average — up from 1.5 before the debate — as Democrats struggle to decide if they still want Joe Biden as their candidate. But our forecast hasn’t moved much over the past two days after showing an initial drop for Biden.
1 day ago · Together with another Trump company, Trump Management Group LLC, Trump Model Management has brought hundreds of foreign fashion models into the United States to work in the fashion industry since 2000. This business and the beauty pageants overlapped somewhat, with various pageant contestants getting modelling contracts.
4 days ago · The big picture: Trump promises an unabashedly imperial presidency — one that would turn the Justice Department against critics, deport millions of people in the U.S. illegally, slap 10% tariffs on thousands of products, and fire perhaps tens of thousands of government staff deemed insufficiently loyal. He'd stretch the powers of the ...
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5 days ago · In February, for example, Trump declared that he would let Russia have its way with any European country that does not spend at least two percent of its GDP on its own defense. “If we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?”
