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5 days ago · The first path for Ms. Harris is to carry Pennsylvania, which Mr. Biden won by more than 80,000 votes in 2020 and has voted for the Democratic candidate in seven out of the last eight presidential ...
1 day ago · Map 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings North Carolina and the order of the swing states. Ever since the 2020 presidential election, it seemed clear that so long as the 2024 presidential election was reasonably competitive and reasonably comparable to 2020, the campaign’s focus would be on 7 key swing states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Industrial North, Georgia and ...
1 day ago · 50%. Aug. 20. 47% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. The latest New York Times/Siena College polls find an essentially tied race across the four key Sun Belt ...
4 days ago · 30% of 2020 Election Result: 30% × +5.0 points = +1.5 points Combined MBFC Average : +10.5 points + +1.5 points = +12.0 points lead for Biden This methodology provides a nuanced approach to mapping the electoral landscape, incorporating both the immediate sentiment of the electorate and the inertia of past voting trends, giving a more rounded perspective for electoral projections.
3 days ago · Trump’s most direct path to 270 electoral votes would be to keep all the states he won in 2020 and flip Georgia and Pennsylvania (two states he won in 2016) back to his column.
2 days ago · Methodology and sources. We use head-to-head presidential election polls in each state to calculate both an average voting intention and a range of likely values for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. States are considered ‘tossups’ if a candidate’s polling average lead is less than 5 percentage points, ‘leaning’ if it is between 5 and ...
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23 hours ago · A month later, Biden’s re-election effort has ended; Vice President Kamala Harris has picked up the Democratic torch; and the conversation about traditional blue states turning red has ...
