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Biases implicit in the availability heuristic affect estimates of risk. A pioneering study by Lichtenstein et al. (1978) examined absolute and relative probability judgements of risk. People know in general terms which risks cause large numbers of deaths and which cause few deaths.
Biases implicit in the availability heuristic affect estimates of risk. A pioneering study by Lichtenstein et. al. (1978) examined absolute and relative probability judgments of risk. People know in general terms which risks cause large numbers of deaths and which cause few deaths.
Jul 3, 2008 · The aim of this study is to deepen our understanding of emerging technology research culture as it relates to global catastrophic risks, and to shed new light on how new research governance...
- Eliezer Yudkowsky
The aim of this paper is to explore the potential difference between correct and actual security decisions when people are supposed to decide and act based on quantified information about risky options, and to consider the impact of using risk as security metric for decision-making in security.
“Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks.” In Global Catastrophic Risks, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Ćirković, 91–119. New York: Oxford University Press.
- 411KB
- Eliezer Yudkowsky
- 31
- 2008
Jul 20, 2021 · In his 2008 book chapter ‘ Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgement of Global Risks’, Eliezer Yudkowsky considers how some of the biases outlined by Kahneman, and others, can affect our judgement when thinking about catastrophic risks.
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Nov 7, 2023 · Executive summary: Cognitive biases like availability heuristic and confirmation bias can distort judgement about risks, especially unprecedented ones like human extinction. Key points: Availability heuristic leads people to underestimate common risks and overestimate memorable ones.
