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Jun 28, 2018 · Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us...
FiveThirtyEight
2 days ago · 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Joe Biden’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
Dec 6, 2022 · What Are The Most Vulnerable Senate Seats In 2024? A FiveThirtyEight Chat. Filed under 2024 Election. Dec. 20, 2022.
538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.
Jan 10, 2023 · Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have...
Nov 3, 2020 · His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, 1 more than ...
Apr 21, 2023 · Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”
Jun 28, 2018 · Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based...
We make journalism for and about people of all identities — by race, gender, age, ability and background. We make journalism for readers, not for other journalists. And we make journalism for ...
