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Aug 11, 2022 · World oil demand is now forecast at 99.7 mb/d in 2022 and 101.8 mb/d in 2023. World oil supply hit a post-pandemic high of 100.5 mb/d in July as maintenance wound down in the North Sea, Canada and Kazakhstan. OPEC+ ramped up total oil production by 530 kb/d in line with higher targets and non-OPEC+ rose by 870 kb/d.
- World oil demand is set to contract by 110 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22, reaching 100.8 mb/d, up by 130 kb/d compared with last month’s Report. Strong gasoil use in key consuming countries outweighs weak European and Asian petrochemical deliveries.
- World oil supply fell 190 kb/d in November to 101.7 mb/d, breaking a five-month uptrend, after Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries curbed supply in line with lower OPEC+ output targets.
- Global refinery throughputs surged 2.2 mb/d in November to the highest since January 2020, resulting in sharply lower diesel and gasoline cracks and refinery margins.
- Russian oil exports increased by 270 kb/d to 8.1 mb/d, the highest since April as diesel exports rose by 300 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d. Crude oil loadings were largely unchanged m-o-m, even as shipments to the EU fell by 430 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d.
- World oil demand is forecast to reach 101.6 mb/d in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. While higher prices and a weaker economic outlook are moderating consumption increases, a resurgent China will drive gains next year, with growth accelerating from 1.8 mb/d in 2022 to 2.2 mb/d in 2023.
- Non-OPEC+ is set to lead world supply growth through next year, adding 1.9 mb/d in 2022 and 1.8 mb/d in 2023. As for OPEC+, total oil output in 2023 may fall as embargoes and sanctions shut in Russian volumes and producers outside the Middle East suffer further declines.
- Global refining capacity is set to expand by 1 mb/d in 2022 and 1.6 mb/d in 2023, boosting throughputs by 2.3 mb/d and 1.9 mb/d, respectively. Nevertheless, product markets are expected to remain tight, with a particular concern for diesel and kerosene supplies.
- Following nearly two years of declines, observed global oil inventories increased by 77 mb in April. OECD industry stocks also rose, by 42.5 mb (1.42 mb/d), helped by government stock releases of nearly 1 mb/d.
Monthly Oil Market Report 2022. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year.
Jul 13, 2022 · Oil demand is now expected to expand by 1.7 mb/d in 2022 and 2.1 mb/d next year, when it reaches 101.3 mb/d. Our forecast was revised slightly higher for oil supply for the remainder of the year due to Russia’s surprisingly strong performance.
Apr 2, 2022 · Current market conditions may lead to higher crude prices as expectations for strong demand are met with indications of limited supply. US Crude Inventories Hold Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
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By monitoring the key indicators of oil supply and demand, such as oil rig counts and activities, the energy investment outlook and crude oil price forecasts, our team of experts will share market intelligence to guide your strategic decisions.
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