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Evolution of global climate conditions
- The Canadian seasonal prediction system is a long-term prediction system whose objective is to forecast the evolution of global climate conditions.
weather.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html
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What types of seasonal forecasts are available in Canada?
What is the Canadian seasonal prediction system?
Will Canada's Winter season bring higher than normal temperatures?
What are seasonal forecasts based on?
Seasonal Forecasts. The Canadian seasonal prediction system is a long-term prediction system whose objective is to forecast the evolution of global climate conditions. Interactive seasonal forecast information. Temperature and Precipitation Probabilistic Forecasts.
- Temperature and Precipitation Probabilistic Forecasts
The seasonal forecasts are based on a 20-member ensemble of...
- Verification of Past Forecasts
Using this menu, you can see the previous 1-3 month forecast...
- Information
For more information on what is predicted by Environment...
- Temperature and Precipitation Probabilistic Forecasts
For more information on what is predicted by Environment Canada seasonal forecasts please read this frequently asked questions page. Examples If the climatological temperature for the area of interest is -18 Celsius and the threshold value is 1.2 Celsius, the above, below and near normal categories are defined by the following values:
The seasonal forecasts are based on a 20-member ensemble of predictions, 10 members from each of two coupled atmosphere-ocean-land physical climate models. The forecast probabilities are estimated by first computing the anomalies or departures from normal for each ensemble member and then applying the calibration procedure to these values.
Seasonal forecasts for Canada. Probabilistic forecasts of temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperature, snow water equivalent, surface solar radiation, cloud fraction and specific humidity for Canada.
Climate models that consider the historical averages are run 20 times, with each simulation predicting a different seasonal forecast and producing a range of possible outcomes. The next step is to determine which of the predicted outcomes - above, near, or below normal - is the most likely, and how much confidence and trust should be placed in ...
Dec 1, 2023 · Today, experts from Environment and Climate Change Canada provided an outlook for Canada’s upcoming winter season, which is expected to bring higher-than-normal temperatures across the country. El Niño conditions, which contributed to extreme global temperatures during the summer and autumn of 2023, are expected to continue through this ...
This statistical technique was developed by Environment Canada's Climate Monitoring and Data Interpretation division to produces seasonal forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies over Canada. The forecast are made at Canadian stations locations up to nine months in advance.
