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     US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?

     As part of its quality control, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet certain criteria, like being transparent about how many people they polled, when the

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     15 hours ago

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     What early polls say about who won the VP debate

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     Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election

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     Former GOP Rep. Cheney rips 'petty, vindictive, cruel' Trump at Harris rally

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     Independent union leader shakes up final weeks of Nebraska Senate race

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     The 2024 election could come down to a single tipping-point state

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2. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › president-generalPresident: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › president-general

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   1 day ago · See the average of 2020 presidential general election polls for each state, accounting for quality, sample size and recency. Compare the results for Harris and Trump in different states and dates.

   • Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

     In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s margin over Donald...

   • National : President: general election : 2024 Polls ...

     Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each...

   • We’re Tracking Trump’s And Harris’s Popularity Ahead Of The ...

     FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of the Virginia race now...

   • The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022 | FiveThirtyEight

     We analyzed virtually all polls conducted in the final 21...

3. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2024-election-forecastWho Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2024-election-forecast

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   1 day ago · See how 538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes for 2024. Harris and Trump are in a toss-up race, with a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

   • Author: G. Elliott Morris

4. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › presidentNational : President: general election : 2024 Polls ...

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › president

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   23 hours ago · See the latest polling averages for the 2024 presidential election between Harris and Trump, updated daily. Compare the results by state, poll type, sample size, methodology and house effects.

5. fivethirtyeight.com › features › were-tracking-trumpWe’re Tracking Trump’s And Harris’s Popularity Ahead Of The ...

   fivethirtyeight.com › features › were-tracking-trump

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   Oct 29, 2021 · FiveThirtyEight tracks the popularity of former President Trump and Vice President Harris ahead of the 2024 presidential election. See their favorability and approval ratings, and how they compare to Biden and other former vice presidents.

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6. fivethirtyeight.com › features › 2022-electionThe Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022 | FiveThirtyEight

   fivethirtyeight.com › features › 2022-election

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   Mar 10, 2023 · The polls were more accurate in 2022 than in any cycle since at least 1998, with almost no bias toward either party. See the updated pollster ratings, the error analysis and the factors that contributed to the low error.

   • Author: Nathaniel Rakich

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7. www.nytimes.com › elections › polls-presidentElection 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump - The New York Times

   www.nytimes.com › elections › polls-president

   23 hours ago · Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.

8. People also ask

   What is 538's forecast based on?

   • 538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

   Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

   See all results for this question

   How are polling averages updated in 2024?

   • Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.

   National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

   See all results for this question

   What is 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model?

   • 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

   Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

   See all results for this question

   Who edited the polls on FiveThirtyEight?

   • Editing by Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Copy editing by Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Alex Kimball, Jennifer Mason, Andrew Mangan, Maya Sweedler and Curtis Yee. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

   President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

   See all results for this question

9. abcnews.go.com › 538538 — Election Polls, Politics, and Analysis - ABC News

   abcnews.go.com › 538

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   538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society.