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  1. Aug 1, 2024 · Americans are generally confident that this fall’s presidential election will be conducted fairly and accurately. Yet Republicans and those who lean toward the GOP are far less confident of this than Democrats and Democratic leaners, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted July 1-7, 2024. Overall, 61% of Americans say they are ...

    • Hannah Hartig
  2. 6 days ago · Major election polls got it wrong in 2016 and again in 2020. The fault lies with the complexity of the American system and also with certain shortcomings of the polling institutes themselves.

  3. 1 day ago · Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024.

  4. 1 day ago · Latest updates. For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes.

    • G. Elliott Morris
  5. Sep 9, 2024 · Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president. The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign ...

  6. 1 day ago · 47% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. The presidential race just keeps getting tighter. With three weeks to go, The New York Times’s polling average shows Kamala ...

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  8. 1 day ago · Who’s ahead in the national polls? Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Aug. 1, 2024 Sept. 1 Oct. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60% Harris 48.6% Trump 46.0% Oct. 16, 2024 leader Oct. 16, 2024 leader Harris Harris +2.6. KEY.

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