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  1. 1 day ago · Harris is now competitive with Trump. (07/22/2024) Effective today the sim and map will reflect Harris vs. Trump as she is the presumptive nominee. The map and sim will be filled in with new polling data covering Harris. At this point the polling is minimal, but we will update it daily. Where there is no new polling data we are keeping the last ...

  2. This map tracks the Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, we use the Consensus Forecast rating. These are all states not seen as competitive. Polling averages are translated to ratings based on this scale: Toss-up is 4% or less, Leans up to 8%, Likely up ...

  3. 1 day ago · Latest updates. For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes.

    • G. Elliott Morris
  4. 1 day ago · Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024.

  5. This isn’t a popularity contest™. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed ...

  6. Sep 17, 2024 · The results of the contentious 2020 U.S. presidential election could yield insights into voter engagement for the 2024 race. Polls have limitations and confidence in their results has been shaken ...

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  8. 1 day ago · 47% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. The presidential race just keeps getting tighter. With three weeks to go, The New York Times’s polling average shows Kamala ...