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Eric and Wil join Jordan to talk about how our powerful, play-by-play MLB game simulations work. In this video, learn:- What a baseball simulation is, and ho...
- 53 min
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- SaberSim DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Strategy
- Lesson #1: Baseball Is Simple
- Lesson #2: Baseball Is Not Simple
- Lesson #3: Batter-Pitcher Matchups Are Much More Complicated Than You May Think
- Lesson #4: on high-scoring Teams, OBP Rules
- Lesson #5: on low-scoring Teams, SLG Rules
- Lesson #6: Random Variation Is Real and Significant
- Lesson #7: Random Variation Is Real and Significant
- Lesson #8: Batting Order Matters, Sort of
- Lesson #9: A Good Closer Makes A Big Difference
- Lesson #10: My Work Will Never End
Ever since I started following sabermetrics, I have been fascinated by the discrete state-based nature of baseball. That is, at any moment in between plays during a baseball game, the state of the game can be described with a small number of variables, most with just a few possible values. On a play-by-play level, those states are: inning (and half...
The sim I laid out above, while interesting, is fairly useless when we’re trying to actually model a real baseball game. Here are some of the variables that are missing from the above model: 1. Individual batter probabilities 2. Starting pitchers 3. Relief pitchers 4. Baserunning 5. Fielding 6. Park 7. Weather 8. Umpire 9. Handedness 10. Bench 11. ...
The initial version of my simulator consisted of only the starting lineup. The sim would take the 2013 season stats of the players, turn those stats into probabilities of single, double, triple home run, strikeout, etc, and determine the outcome of each play based on those probabilities, adjusting the game state accordingly. That was fun and intere...
A topic that has interested me recently is the effect of lineup construction and ability on overall offensive performance; in other words, how do the types of hitters on a team affect the way and extent to which teams score runs. Is it better to have high-OBP or high-SLG players, overall offensive ability being equal? What if overall offense is bel...
The flip side of the above conclusion from Tango and Staude is that for a low-scoring team, it is better to have players with power than players who get on base, again, all else equal. I tested this in a similar way as above, by looking at Jonathan Villar (.243/.321/.319) and Zack Cozart(.254/.284/.381), who both had a .289 wOBA in 2013. Because Co...
The effect of random variation should be well-known to those who read tangotiger.com often, myself included, but the extent to which simulation results vary, even over large samples, astonished me. As an example, I’m going to run a simulation of a sample game between the Yankees and Red Sox (based on ZiPS projections) 162 times, note the results, t...
In the same vein as above, player results are significantly affected by random variation, as much as we want to ascribe them to skill rather than luck,. Consider the final batting statistics of 18 Mike Trouts batting against Yu Darvishover 150 games: The results here seem even more surprising and counter to the common way of thinking about statisti...
Much has been written and researched on the ideal order of a lineup, and there are tools available to determine the best order of a lineup. I was still curious, however, about what my simple simulator would say about these theories and about the differences between types of lineup orders. One example I heard a lot about last year and in the offseas...
A fun aspect of the sim to play around with is the custom starting situation options, in which you can begin games at a certain inning, with a certain number of outs, runners, score, and batting spot. In particular, I was curious upon adding this feature about the significance of having an elite closer close the game instead of a mediocre one. To t...
When I began this project, I saw it as a simple opportunity to get more coding experience, and maybe make something that would be fun to use for a bit. I soon realized that 1) I knew nothing, and 2) there were a million things that I could do to improve the simulation engine itself, as well as add new, hopefully interesting, features. I wanted to a...
Win league pennants and world championships. Develop record breaking pitchers and batters. Pitching Ratings. Stamina: How many pitches he can throw before he gets tired. Higher stamina means more decisions. Stuff: How the pitcher's ball moves including velocity and control. Better stuff means more wins. Batting Ratings.
Oct 2, 2024 · Here’s an overview of the timeout rules in baseball: Purpose of Timeouts in Baseball. Timeouts in baseball allow players and coaches to strategize and adjust during the game. Unlike other sports that have structured timeout periods, baseball’s timeouts are more fluid and situational. They can help reset the pace, provide tactical advice ...
The Games and Simulations Research Committee was formed in 2010 to explore how various simulation games work, what statistics are generated, and how organized baseball might benefit from strategies and tactics used in such games. The SABR Games and Simulations Committee focuses on the relationship between these entertainments and the sport they ...
Show and Tell. I hope this post is ok here. I made a fairly basic Excel baseball simulator for single game simulation based on real life metrics. Would love to expand it when I have time (there are tons of ideas in my head - pitching changes, pinch hitters, other managerial decisions, and of course the main goal would be a full season simulator ...
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Mar 20, 2024 · Baseball Timeout Rules. Baseball timeouts can be called for a variety of different reasons. As such, depending on the type of timeout being called, there are a variety of different rules surrounding when and how these timeouts are called. Read on to learn about the rules surrounding timeouts in baseball and how they affect a game.
