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Sep 26, 2022 · The release of U.S. GDP data for the second quarter of 2022 showed the second consecutive negative GDP growth rate, leading many to believe that the country is now in a recession.
- Ce16ov
Units: Thousands of Persons, Seasonally Adjusted Frequency:...
- Michael T. Owyang
Economic Data: FRED-SD: State-Level Databases for...
- Ce16ov
Since past recessions have been associated with a sharp increase of the unemployment rate, we are unlikely to be in a recession, but the consecutive GDP declines could suggest that a recession is imminent. This Economic Brief reviews the evidence on yield spreads, which past research has shown to be useful recession predictors.
Jul 7, 2022 · A growing number of economists predict that the United States is headed for a recession in the next year. Polls have found that some Americans believe we’re already in one. But regardless of the...
- Inspecting Individual Recession Indicators
- A Composite Index of Recession Indicators
- Low Unemployment Rate Is Also Argument Against Recession
The NBER committee’s indicators used to date business cycles include real (inflation-adjusted) personal income minus transfers, nonfarm payroll employment, employment as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes and industrial production. Th...
To visually summarize the indicators considered by the NBER committee, we construct a composite index of recession indicators. We use a similar methodology to the Conference Board’s composite index of coincidence indicatorsbut add household survey employment and real consumption to the four included in the Conference Board index. The growth rate of...
While not listed among the indicators considered by the NBER committee, the unemployment rate is also among the indicators pointing to labor market strength through the first half of 2022 (Chart 5, Panel B). It has declined from 3.9 percent in December 2021 to 3.6 percent in March 2022, where it has held steady through June. By month six, every oth...
Apr 13, 2022 · With inflation at a four-decade high, a growing number of forecasters worry the U.S. economy may be headed to a recession as the Fed gears up to raise interest rates aggressively.
Oct 11, 2022 · A mild recession could cost the economy as little as a few hundred thousand jobs or up to 1.8 million jobs if the nation’s gross domestic product, or economic output, declines 1.2%, and the...
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Jun 24, 2022 · Analysts at Goldman Sachs put the probability of a recession over the next year at 30 percent, up from 15 percent. Economists at Bank of America predicted a 40 percent chance of a recession...
