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Feb 6, 2023 · Foresight as a key strategic capability. Foresight is a set of approaches that help explore, imagine and anticipate the future in an open but structured way. It can help identify and explore challenges and opportunities emerging from multiple signals and drivers of change shaping the future. It is also critical to inform decisions and act as a ...
- Futures Intelligence – What Is It?
- Categories of Futures Intelligence
- Megatrends, Trends and Change Drivers
- Scenarios
- Discontinuities, Emerging Issues and Weak Signals
- Wild Cards and Science Fiction
- The Uses of Futures Intelligence
- Producing Futures Intelligence – Futures Intelligence Cycle
Intelligence, in general, can be understood as useful knowledge derived from otherwise unstructured or unanalysed data. Futures Intelligence, specifically, is future-related knowledge, or futures knowledge, produced for a specific purpose using futures studies and foresight methods. What sets futures intelligence apart from traditional intelligence...
Futures Intelligence is not a single product. Generally speaking, futures intelligence can be divided into four categories, each suitable for a different purpose. Each of the categories is comprised of different types of futures knowledge, the basic building block of futures intelligence. The different knowledge types can help us understand the pla...
THE FIRST CATEGORY of Futures Intelligence helps to obtain an understanding concerning the larger picture and path-dependencies related to the theme that one is interested in. It comprises mostly of megatrends, trends, and change drivers, which are usually quantifiable. Megatrends are global, long-term change developments that have impacts on busin...
THE SECOND CATEGORY is about getting an understanding of plausible and viable alternatives within the theme one focuses interested in. This type of futures intelligence is most commonly obtained by using scenario production methods. Scenariosare descriptions of alternative development paths. They are either plots in the form of narratives or quanti...
THE THIRD CATEGORY goes closest to the more traditional intelligence, and Market Intelligence as it is about being vigilant concerning changes in the environment. The main interest in this category is on discontinuities, emerging issues, and weak signals of change. In the foresight context, this is usually called Horizon Scanning, which is also qui...
THE FOURTH CATEGORY is about possible futures created by free imagination. The key forms of futures knowledge in it are wild cards, black swans, and science fiction. Science fiction can be entirely fictional, meaning that there are no linkages to the known realities. Yet, it still has a vital role in feeding our visionary processes with out-of-the-...
How and for what Futures Intelligence is used always depends on the organisation’s unique needs and context. However, some common themes for its use can be identified: 1. early warning: to alert the organisation about threats and opportunities 2. informing and future-proofing decisions, plans and strategies: ensuring that no important future change...
The production and use of futures intelligence is a continuous cycle. The cycle is modelled after the traditional intelligence cycle, but it contains futures studies and foresight-related elements that modify it for futures knowledge creation. DIRECTION: Futures Intelligence Cycle starts with the needs of the organisation that direct the futures in...
Jun 12, 2024 · Wilner and Roy note that part of foresight's impact challenge lies in the metric used to mark “success”—the output (such as the number of foresight reports produced and experts engaged, or even the inclusiveness or robustness of the process) or a particular type of outcome (such as the influence foresight has on policies and the policy-making process), with “no clear understanding of ...
Apr 15, 2024 · In 1971, the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies was founded. It is one of the most well-known organizations in the world for futures research, consulting, and teaching, as well as for providing organizations, agencies, and companies worldwide with foresight and futures thinking . A few decades later, in 2010 and 2012, respectively, the ...
Jul 21, 2023 · Foresight analysis for future pathways . Foresight focuses on future-oriented analysis, using a range of methods and tools to anticipate — not predict — plausible futures, evolutions, disruptions and scenarios that could influence our work as a research funder and how we support organizations and networks in the Global South.
Jan 10, 2021 · It has highlighted the importance of monitoring and addressing low probability, high impact risks and reinforced the willingness to “think about the unthinkable”. This report reviews methods in strategic foresight that can help organizations to deal with and reduce uncertainty. A few key points highlighted by the report:
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Sep 18, 2023 · Using foresight in a crisis context is not easy, but it helps us create a space to have conversations about the future and the impact you want to make more than the tools or methodologies.
