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May 17, 2019 · The chain ladder method (clm) calculates incurred but not reported (IBNR) loss estimates, using run-off triangles of paid losses and incurred losses, representing the sum of paid losses and case reserves.
A chain ladder process is a discrete-time, real-valued stochastic process fXj > 0g 0, such that for each j > 0. j. E [XjjXj 1; : : : ; X0] = fj Xj 1; V [XjjXj 1; : : : ; X0] = j Xj 1. with parameters fj > 0 (development factors) and j 0. Standard estimators from loss triangle, 1 j J: ^fj CIj;j. := ; CIj;j 1.
The chain ladder technique (equivalently, age-to-age development factors) is one of the oldest actuarial techniques to be applied widely for estimating loss reserves.
Chain Ladder and Bornhuetter/Ferguson So far, we have not used any assumptions. But for Var(Ck), Cov(Ck,R) we need a model. Model A: (with U = Cn) E(Ck|U) = pkU, Var(Ck|U) = pkqkα2(U) => Var(Ck) = pkqkE(α2(U)) + pk2Var(U) Cov(Ck,R) = pkqk ( Var(U) – E(α2(U)) ) But E(α2(U)) is difficult to estimate.
The chain ladder method is a simple and suggestive tool in claims reserving, and various attempts have been made aiming at its justification in a stochastic model. Remarkable progress has been achieved by Schnieper and Mack who considered models involving assumptions on conditional distributions.
The purpose of this paper is to bridge the gap between the stochastic underpinnings of the chain ladder method and its implementation in practice, i.e., when link ratios are selected based on judgment. We present a general chain ladder model that fulfills two key requirements:
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Dec 20, 2002 · The chain–ladder method is the most popular method of loss reserving. In its origin, it is nothing else than a heuristic and appealing algorithm. The question arises why or under which conditions the chain–ladder method should be applied or not.