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- The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the NBER dates the start of each recession after a lag of several months and dates the end of a recession after an even longer lag: According to the NBER, business cycle peaks are announced an average of 7.8 months after their dating and business cycle troughs are announced an average of 15.8 months after their dating.
fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/06/dating-a-recession/Dating a recession | FRED Blog - Federal Reserve Bank of St ...
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How does that relate to the NBER's recession dates? A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
- Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcements | NBER
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- Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021
The NBER chronology does not identify the precise moment...
- Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcements | NBER
The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable.
examines the strengths and weaknesses of the NBER recession dates. We argue that the most important strength of the recession chronology is that it captures a fundamental feature of the macroeconomy: long periods of relatively stable growth are periodically interrupted.
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Aug 18, 2022 · Rather than the two-quarter definition, the NBER employs a more comprehensive approach to dating the beginning and end of recessions. Specifically, the NBER dates both the month and the quarter when economic activity peaked or troughed. Typically, the peak month occurs in the same quarter—but not always.
Jul 21, 2022 · The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee —the official recession scorekeeper—defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that...
Jul 19, 2021 · The NBER chronology does not identify the precise moment that the economy entered a recession or expansion. In the NBER’s convention for measuring the duration of a recession, the first month of the recession is the month following the peak and the last month is the month of the trough.
May 20, 2021 · The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally thought of as the authority on deciding when recessions in the United States begin (the business cycle peak) and end (the business cycle trough).
