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Oct 9, 2024 · One particularly slow-moving category one storm, Hurricane Debby, was forecast to bring as much as 30in (76cm) of rain and catastrophic flooding as it swept north from Florida's Gulf Coast on 5 ...
More than 90% of global warming over the past 50 years has taken place in the oceans. Hurricanes are taking full advantage of the additional energy, getting stronger faster – and sometimes right ...
1 day ago · They found the precipitation from the storm was 10 percent heavier due to climate change and that such extreme rain is now 40 to 70 percent more likely because of warming. Looking at Hurricane ...
- Summary Statement
- Global Warming and Atlantic Hurricanes
- Global Tropical Cyclone Activity and Climate Warming
- Recent Relevant GFDL Papers and Animations
- Assessment of Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
- Early GFDL Research on Global Warming and Hurricanes
Two frequently asked questions on global warming and hurricanes are the following: 1. What changes in hurricane activity are expected for the late 21st century, given the pronounced global warming scenarios from IPCC models? 2. Have humans already caused a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane activity or global tropical cyclone activity? The I...
A. Statistical relationships between SSTs and hurricanes
It is well known that hurricanes form over relatively warm sea surfaces, which has led to notions that global warming will greatly increase hurricane activity globally. This has led to the use of statistical analyses and models to study the relationships between Atlantic hurricanes and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Emanuel (2007) found a strong correlation, on multi-year time-scales, between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for...
B. Analysis of century-scale Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency
To gain more insight on the issue of Atlantic hurricanes and global warming, we have attempted to analyze much longer (> 100 yr) records of Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane activity. If greenhouse warming causes a substantial increase in Atlantic hurricane activity, then the observed century scale increase in tropical Atlantic SSTs since the late 1800s should have produced a long-term rise in measures of Atlantic hurricanes activity, similar to that seen for global temperature, for exampl...
C. Analysis of other observed Atlantic hurricane metrics
For hurricane rapid intensification (RI), Bhatia et al. (2019) and Bhatia et al. (2022) find that the observed increases in the probability of RI since 1982 are highly unusual compared to one climate model’s (GFDL HiFLOR) simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, both in the Atlantic basin and globally. This change is assessed to be detectable (i.e., not explainable by natural variability alone) with medium confidence by IPCC AR6. The increase in RI is consistent in sign with t...
The main focus of this web page is on Atlantic hurricane activity and global warming. However, an important question concerns whether global warming has or will substantially affect tropical cyclone activity in other basins. In terms of historical tropical cyclone activity, recent work (Kossin et al. 2014; see GFDL Research Highlight; Kossin et al....
Tropical cyclone motion in a changing climate. (G. Zhang, H. Murakami, T. R. Knutson, R., and K. Yoshida), 2020: Science Advances, 6(17), eaaz7610, DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aaz7610.Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates. (K. Bhatia, G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, H. Murakami, J. Kossin, K. W. Dixon, and C. E. Whitlock), 2019: Nature Communications, 10, 635,...A new ScienceBrief Review on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Changehas been published (Mar. 26, 2021). An updated WMO Task Team assessment on tropical cyclones and climate change was published (2019; 2020) in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: I) “Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment. Part I: Detection and Attribution” II...
The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth’s climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricanes will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occ...
Jul 13, 2021 · Iota’s rapid intensification may be linked to global warming, but a 150-year record of Atlantic hurricanes suggests no long-term trend in storm frequency. NOAA Share this:
Mar 10, 2020 · One NASA study from late 2018 supports the notion that global warming is causing the number of extreme storms to increase, at least over Earth’s tropical oceans (between 30 degrees North and South of the equator). A team led by JPL’s Hartmut Aumann, AIRS project scientist from 1993 to 2012, analyzed 15 years of AIRS data, looking for ...
Jun 5, 2024 · With a record-breaking 2024 Atlantic hurricane forecast, here’s how scientists are helping Caribbean communities adapt to a warming world Published: June 5, 2024 8:42am EDT
