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- World oil demand is set to contract by 110 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22, reaching 100.8 mb/d, up by 130 kb/d compared with last month’s Report. Strong gasoil use in key consuming countries outweighs weak European and Asian petrochemical deliveries.
- World oil supply fell 190 kb/d in November to 101.7 mb/d, breaking a five-month uptrend, after Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries curbed supply in line with lower OPEC+ output targets.
- Global refinery throughputs surged 2.2 mb/d in November to the highest since January 2020, resulting in sharply lower diesel and gasoline cracks and refinery margins.
- Russian oil exports increased by 270 kb/d to 8.1 mb/d, the highest since April as diesel exports rose by 300 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d. Crude oil loadings were largely unchanged m-o-m, even as shipments to the EU fell by 430 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d.
Chinese oil demand is particularly weak, with consumption falling by 500,000 bpd in August for the fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, crude production in the Americas is expected to rise by 1.5 million bpd this year and next. On Monday, OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2024 and 2025 for the third consecutive month.
Dec 14, 2021 · On average, oil demand has been revised down by around 100 kb/d since last month’s Report for both 2021 and 2022. Global oil demand is now set to rise by 5.4 mb/d in 2021 and by 3.3 mb/d in 2022, when it returns to pre-pandemic levels at 99.5 mb/d. Global oil production is poised to outpace demand from December, led by growth in the US and ...
Mar 16, 2022 · As a result, we have revised down our forecast for world oil demand by 1.3 mb/d for 2Q22-4Q22, resulting in 950 kb/d slower growth for 2022 on average. Total demand is now projected at 99.7 mb/d in 2022, an increase of 2.1 mb/d from 2021. The prospect of large-scale disruptions to Russian oil production is threatening to create a global oil ...
However, new Covid waves in Europe, weaker industrial activity and higher oil prices will temper gains, leaving our forecast for oil demand growth largely unchanged since last month’s Report at 5.5 mb/d for 2021 and 3.4 mb/d in 2022. US output is rising amid stronger oil prices. World oil supply is set to rise 1.5 mb/d over November and ...
Jan 12, 2022 · In the fourth quarter of 2021, the price of Brent crude oil, the international pricing benchmark, averaged $79 per barrel (b). We forecast that the price of Brent will average $75/b in 2022 and $68/b in 2023. The declining prices are driven by a shift from global petroleum inventory declines during 2021 to inventory increases in 2022 and 2023.
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All in all, world oil demand is forecast to rise by 5.5 mb/d, to 96.3 mb/d in 2021 and 3.3 mb/d in 2022, when it is set to reach pre-Covid levels. World oil supply, meanwhile, is projected to rise sharply in October as US output bounces back from Hurricane Ida and OPEC+ continues to unwind cuts. Earlier this month the producer group reconfirmed ...
