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D VOLATILITY. IT MATTER?1 Introduction The South African rand has been relatively volatile as the currency has flexibly responded to do. estic and external disturbances. Domestic shocks have been relatively large in recent years, elevating rand volatility to above the VIX (US stock price volatility, a commonly used in. icator of global risk ...
In South Africa, the currency enjoyed a period of strength in early 2022 based on high commodity prices and a different view of risk-on and risk-off. However, events in April showed just how vulnerable the rand remains to both internal and external shocks. “The onset of increased load-shedding and the flooding disaster in KwaZulu-Natal, as ...
Low economic growth ahead. Economic growth in South Africa appears to be gaining momentum after a sluggish start in 2024. Post-general election, consumer and business confidence has risen, probably driven by increased trust in the Government of National Unity (GNU) and its potential reforms. However, the mining sector, which accounts for a ...
Dec 13, 2019 · The rand is also subject to external shocks, at least through two important channels. First, the rand trades in large volumes globally. Compared to major EMs, South Africa’s daily currency turnover in global markets scaled by official reserves is by far the highest partly as the rand is traded as EM proxy (Figure 4, left panel). Second ...
Feb 11, 2022 · The economy recovered strongly in 2021, following an unprecedented real output contraction in 2020. However, the outlook remains precarious amidst projected future low growth, high unemployment and adverse debt dynamics, and the recovery pace is unlikely to be sustained. Ample buffers allowed the financial system to handle the COVID-19 shock relatively well, but domestic and external downside ...
In particular, an updated result in Carstens (2019) shows that ERPT in EMs moderated from around 0.3 in the early-2000s to 0.1 in the late-2000s and first half of the 2010s, and edged up to around 0.2 by the end of 2018. ERPT in South Africa could be affected by several key factors.
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May 22, 2020 · Beyond our finding of significant response of output growth to positive (contractionary) and negative (expansionary) monetary policy shocks , the fact that the magnitude is higher for the positive shock relative to the negative shock confirms our hypothesis that asymmetries matter in in the response of the macroeconomic fundamentals to monetary policy shocks in South Africa. More importantly ...
