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2 days ago · The state polling misses have been magnified in the last two presidential elections — two very close races that heightened the importance of the Electoral College. But the polls’ performance ...
5 days ago · As we head toward the 2024 US presidential election, media large and small frequently fall into the trap of “horse race” journalism. Policy questions are rarely treated in depth, and the ...
1 day ago · Latest updates. For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes.
- G. Elliott Morris
5 days ago · A few percentage points of difference in turnout by gender or education can produce very different results, both in election polls and in elections themselves. IE 11 is not supported.
Aug 1, 2024 · Currently, Democrats are 30 percentage points more likely than Republicans to express confidence that the presidential election will be conducted fairly (77% vs. 47%). However, in April 2020, as the coronavirus outbreak was spreading in the U.S., Republicans were more confident than Democrats that the election would be conducted fairly and accurately (75% vs. 46%).
- Hannah Hartig
1 day ago · Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here. On Sept. 13, 2024, we fixed a bug in this polling average that arose after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race on Aug. 23, 2024.
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1 day ago · 47% Trump Trump. 49% Harris Harris. Nate Cohn Chief political analyst. The presidential race just keeps getting tighter. With three weeks to go, The New York Times’s polling average shows Kamala ...
