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- Canada is headed towards a moderate recession, but the economic contraction is expected to be short-lived compared to previous recessions, economists with Royal Bank of Canada predict.
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Aug 14, 2024 · Canada’s not (technically) in a recession. Economists typically define a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real gross domestic product, often accompanied by...
- In Canada, Economic Pressures Are Closing in
- This Recession Won’T Be as Severe as Prior Downturns
- Higher Rates Are Key to Reining in Inflation Expectations
- Slowing Growth Abroad Will Spill Over Into Canada
- The Boom in Household Spending Will Flag Later This Year
- Rate Hikes Will Reverse But Not Until Inflation Cools
When you’re at the top of the hill the only way to go is down. Canada’s economic growth has fired on all cylinders following pandemic shutdowns. But a historic labour squeeze, soaring food and energy prices and rising interest rates are now closing in. Those pressures will likely push the economy into a moderate contraction in 2023. Canadians conti...
Both in Canada and abroad, central banks are aggressively hiking rates to slow household demand and fight inflation. In Canada, much of the price pressure is coming from beyond our borders, as energy and agricultural prices surge on supply chain snarls stemming partly from the Ukraine war. Strong domestic demand for housing and services has intensi...
Though higher rates will technically push Canada toward a contraction, the Bank of Canada now has little choice but to act. Inflation has been too strong for too long and is starting to creep into longer-run business and consumer expectations. Higher inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling, making businesses more likely to pass on cost in...
Even without rate hikes, labour shortages in Canada and abroad are preventing expansion. The U.S. economy contracted in Q1 and though we’re tracking a small increase in Q2, it wouldn’t take a major forecast miss to have a second quarter of negative growth. We expect the U.S. unemployment rate to rise to 4% by year’s end and climb to almost 5% in 20...
Canadian households have socked away over $300 billion in savings since the end of 2019. That’s boosting spending—and adding more inflation pressure. But the lion’s share of savings remain with higher income households, leaving lower income groups more vulnerable to rising rates and prices. Housing markets have softened dramatically, with prices sw...
Global inflation pressures may soon peak. Shipping costs have declined. And exceptionally strong demand for goods—which has sparked supply chain challenges and higher input costs—is moderating as consumers in Canada and abroad shift spending to services that weren’t available during pandemic lockdowns. Much of the surge in wheat prices following Ru...
Oct 20, 2022 · Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney told a Senate of Canada committee that Canada likely will head into a recession next year but will fare better than many other...
Jul 7, 2022 · Canada is headed towards a moderate recession, but the economic contraction is expected to be short-lived compared to previous recessions, economists with Royal Bank of Canada predict.
Jul 17, 2024 · The total size of the Canadian economy has continued to grow—narrowly avoiding the consecutive headline GDP declines that would normally qualify as a “recession” in the aftermath of surging inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes by the BoC in 2022-23.
Apr 8, 2023 · Canadian employers have added more than 270,000 jobs since November, in spite of forecasts indicating a recession was looming. (Brian Snyder/Reuters) Canada's economy is in a solid position....
Jan 2, 2023 · For many Canadians, 2022 was a tough year as interest rates climbed, inflation soared and the economy slowed. Unfortunately, 2023 doesn't look like it will provide much respite. Analysts say a...
