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chain-ladder factors and volatility parameters were used (see Section 6.3 for more details). Second, our general Mack chain-ladder (GMCL) model can be used to construct the proxy solutions to overcome the limits of Mack’s (1999) approach, i.e., the use of the same weights for parameters esti-mation (see discussion in Section 3.6). This means
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News media, social media, and search engines have become so biased, politicized, and personalized that we are often stuck inside filter bubbles, where we’re only exposed to information and ideas we already agree with. When bias is hidden and we see only facts, information, and opinions that confirm our existing beliefs, a number of negative things ...
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The Mack model is attractive because:The Mack model is attractive because: The Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (“BLUE”) for the reserves equals the chain-ladder estimates. See Murphy 1994 for further details. The model is robust in handling [some] negative development increments. 1234 19 Introduction to Stochastic Reserving E(D y,d |D y,d− ...
We revisit the “full picture” of the claims development uncertainty in Mack’s (1993) distribution-free stochastic chain ladder model. We derive the uncertainty estimators in a new and easily understandable way, which is much simpler than the derivation found so far in the literature, and compare them with the well known estimators of Mack and of Merz–Wüthrich.
- Alois Gisler
- 2019
Nov 3, 2021 · If these assumptions hold, the Mack Chain Ladder gives an unbiased estimator for IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported). 2.2.4.1. Estimating the Parameter in the Mack Chain-Ladder Model Given the information and for , the development factor or age-to-age factor are estimated by
Mar 29, 2021 · Abstract. We derive in a straightforward manner and through a unified framework the main known results related to the estimation of the ultimate prediction uncertainty within the famous Mack's distribution-free chain-ladder model, specifically, the Mack and BBMW formulas, and explain the deviation between the two formulas in terms of the applied estimation principles.
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Jul 21, 2024 · If these assumptions hold, the Mack chain-ladder-model gives an unbiased estimator for IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) claims. The Mack chain-ladder model can be regarded as a weighted linear regression through the origin for each development period: lm(y ~ x + 0, weights=w/x^(2-alpha)) , where \(y\) is the vector of claims at development period \(k+1\) and \(x\) is the vector of claims at ...
