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Sep 14, 2015 · Therefore, a ball that simply passes through the strike zone for a total of one inch should technically be called a strike. This is where you may think of back door strikes: the slider that...
- Eric Lang
- What The Data Say
- Proposed Strike Zone Model
- Metrics For Heart/Control/Command
- Adding in Some Nuance
- Summing Up Horizontal and Vertical Nuance
- Pizza Slice Model
- Concluding Thoughts
- References and Resources
Pitchers, when they choose the location of the pitch are optimizing for three outcomes: 1. Limiting quality of contact (we’ll measure this with wOBAContact) 2. Maximizing called strikes (we’ll measure this with Called Strike % on pitches taken) 3. Maximizing swings and misses (we’ll measure this with Swing & Miss %) Let’s look at a chart from the p...
We start with a superellipse, with a height that is 90 percent of its width. This is the probabilistic strike zone we explored in part one. The innermost circle, which can be larger or smaller depending on your own analysis, should be considered the “heart” of the plate. The size of the circle is entirely arbitrary and depends on what you want to c...
Let’s look at some high level metrics for our three zones, for all pitches thrown within the probabilistic strike zone outlined in the first article of this series, excluding bunts and bunt attempts. Pitches to the heart of the zone have a greater than 99 percent chance of being called a strike. The control zone sacrifices a little called strike ce...
Let’s sprinkle in a little nuance that doesn’t conform perfectly to our model. Let’s begin by looking at swing and miss percentage by horizontal location. Negative values are always inside; positive values farther away from the hitter. Swing & Miss Location by Horizontal Location Four-seam fastballs get more swings and misses the farther they are f...
Generally speaking, as we move away from the true center of strike zone, we experience predictable changes in outcomes. The large exception relates to swings and misses with respect to horizontal location. If a pitcher is optimizing for a specific outcome (such as a swing and miss), horizontal and vertical location become much bigger factors as opp...
If you believe the model above is overly simplistic, a simple modification would be to convert each zone into pizza slices. This would look something like this: One could then capture the distance (Heart/Control/Command) as well as nuance (up and in/up and away/down and in/down and away). This would give us 12 distinct zones to classify pitches tha...
The strike zone is a beautiful, constantly shifting puzzle; the pitcher has to decide, based on a host of variables, where he should aim his pitch. In part one, “It’s Not a Square,” we argued that the strike zone is better represented as a superellipse, rather than a rectangle. Today, we pushed the envelope one step farther, suggesting that we shou...
Rob Arthur, FiveThirtyEight, “Baseball’s New Pitch-Tracking System Is Just A Bit Outside”Wayne Boyle, Baseball Prospectus, “Prospectus Feature: The Universal Strike Zone“Wayne Boyle, Sean O’Rourke, Jeff Long, and Harry Pavlidis, Baseball Prospectus, “Robo Strike Zone: It’s Not as Simple as You Think“Therefore, a ball that simply passes through the strike zone for a total of one inch should technically be called a strike. This is where you may think of back door strikes: the slider that catches the outside corner of the plate.
Mar 21, 2024 · Using Trackman data across NCAA Division I baseball, we created a model to predict the called strike probability of an individual pitch and identify the location of the true college strike...
Nov 9, 2015 · 2D Strike Zone Modeling and the LH versus RH Strike Zone Transformation. To get a good idea of the exact form of the strike zone at the front of the plate in two dimensions for 2015, we...
- Matthew Mata
Mar 10, 2020 · The strike zone is defined in the rule book Definitions (strike zone) as a three-dimensional area over home plate that extends from the hollow at the bottom of the knee to a point "at the midpoint between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants." The top of the zone is going to take some discussion, so let's save that for later.
People also ask
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Strikes: A pitch that passes through any part of this zone, or a swing and miss by the batter, is called a strike. While the rulebook provides clear boundaries for the strike zone, interpreting and calling pitches consistently is far more complicated.
