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1. www.stlouisfed.org › on-the-economy › 2022Do Key Economic Indicators Point to a U.S. Recession? | St ...

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   Sep 26, 2022 · Is the U.S. in a Recession? What Key Economic Indicators Say. September 26, 2022. By Michael T. Owyang , Ashley H. Stewart. A common rule of thumb for identifying recessions is experiencing two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

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     Units: Thousands of Persons, Seasonally Adjusted Frequency:...

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     Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2019-034D,...

2. www.vox.com › 2022/7/7 › 23198724How will we know if the United States is in a recession? | Vox

   www.vox.com › 2022/7/7 › 23198724

   Jul 7, 2022 · Recessions in the US are officially declared by a committee of eight economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). There is no hard timetable for determining recessions, but it...

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4. www.weforum.org › 2022 › 05Is the US heading for recession? All the indicators say yes ...

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   May 4, 2022 · The United States is now facing the familiar precursors of a recession, including rising interest rates on the back of high inflation. The Federal Reserve is taking action, and its decisions will be critical to the length and severity of any recession.

5. time.com › 6201205What Is a Recession and Is the U.S. in One in 2022? | TIME

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   • What Is A Recession?
   • What Causes A Recession?
   • Are We Currently in A Recession?
   • How Should We prepare?

   Many experts—including former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, who spoke to TIME—agree that, although the technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, a measure of economic growth, that is not enough to make the call. The United States’ National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a nonprofit organization...

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   Previous recessions were caused by market-related shocks to the economy, such as the financial crisis in 2008, which was spurred by inadequate lending standards and a housing crisis, or the dotcom crash in the early 2000s that followed overzealous investment in technology stocks. The Federal Reserve, the central bank that oversees America’s monetar...

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   While economists agree that we are not currently in a recession, the outlook is not rosy. A surveyof 49 U.S. macroeconomists conducted by the Financial Times and the Initiative on Global Markets found that more than two-thirds believe a recession will hit in 2023. Experts generally agree that it is difficult to predict if, when and how long a reces...

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   While the fear of an upcoming recession looms over many Americans, there is still time to adjust. “It’s extremely unusual and frankly bizarre that we have forecast this recession,” Sahm said, “but it could also be for families to prepare like they never had.” Economic experts suggest people set some money aside if possible. Savings will give them a...

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     Why a 2022 Recession Would Be Unlike Any Other | WSJ

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     The Recession We Need To Have | Economics Explained

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7. www.richmondfed.org › economic_brief › 2022Recession Predictors: An Evaluation - Richmond Fed

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   Economic Brief. August 2022, No. 22-30. In the first half of 2022, real GDP has declined in each quarter, but the unemployment rate has remained at historically low levels. Since past recessions have been associated with a sharp increase of the unemployment rate, we are unlikely to be in a recession, but the consecutive GDP declines could ...

8. www.npr.org › 2022/07/28 › 1113649843U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it ...

   www.npr.org › 2022/07/28 › 1113649843

   Jul 28, 2022 · Is it in a recession? GDP shrank for a 2nd quarter in a row. While two consecutive quarters of negative growth is often considered a recession, it's not an official definition.

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   Is the US in a recession?

   • A common rule of thumb for identifying recessions is experiencing two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The release of U.S. GDP data for the second quarter of 2022 showed the second consecutive negative GDP growth rate, leading many to believe that the country is now in a recession.

   Do Key Economic Indicators Point to a U.S. Recession?

   www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/sep/us-recession-what-key-economic-indicators-say

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   Will 2022 be a recession?

   • In the first half of 2022, real GDP has declined in each quarter, but the unemployment rate has remained at historically low levels. Since past recessions have been associated with a sharp increase of the unemployment rate, we are unlikely to be in a recession, but the consecutive GDP declines could suggest that a recession is imminent.

   Recession Predictors: An Evaluation - Richmond Fed

   www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2022/eb_22-30

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   What economic indicators indicate a recession?

   • What Key Economic Indicators Say A common rule of thumb for identifying recessions is experiencing two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

   Do Key Economic Indicators Point to a U.S. Recession?

   www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/sep/us-recession-what-key-economic-indicators-say

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   Are economists warning of a recession?

   • Many economists are warning of a recession, but some saying those fears are overblown. Image: Knowledge At Wharton The most widely accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. The United States is now facing the familiar precursors of a recession, including rising interest rates on the back of high inflation.

   Is the US heading for recession? All the indicators say yes | World

   www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/05/united-states-recession/

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   Is a two-quarter recession the start of a recession?

   • During the second quarter of 2022, growth slowed at a 0.9% annualized rate, which some economists would consider to be the start of the recession. But the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, “has never accepted the two-quarters idea” as the official definition, Charles Radin, the NBER Director of Public Information, wrote in an email to TIME.

   What Is a Recession and Is the U.S. in One in 2022? | TIME

   time.com/6201205/what-is-a-recession-2022/

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   How long does it take to determine a recession?

   • There is no hard timetable for determining recessions, but it often takes a year before the committee makes an announcement. (There are some common rules of thumb, like two quarters of negative gross domestic product — but these aren’t hard-and-fast rules, and even those metrics are backward-looking.)

   How will we know if the United States is in a recession? - Vox

   www.vox.com/2022/7/7/23198724/united-states-recession-indicators-economists-forecasters

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10. www.whitehouse.gov › cea › written-materialsHow Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a

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    Jul 21, 2022 · A widely cited indicator of recessions (the “Sahm rule” named after economist Claudia Sahm) maintains that a recession is likely underway when the three-month moving average of the ...