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Jan 6, 2018 · In a hypothetical election of just two candidates, a vote share spread of 10 points (45% vs 55% ) means the winner received 22% more votes. A 33 point spread (~33.3% vs 66.6%) means the winning ...
- Mcgnms
Sep 20, 2016 · Blue state: A state where people tend to vote for the Democratic Party. Bundler: A person who gathers ("bundles") campaign contributions to a candidate from his or her network of friends and ...
- Andrew Mercer
- What is the margin of error anyway? Because surveys only talk to a sample of the population, we know that the result probably won’t exactly match the “true” result that we would get if we interviewed everyone in the population.
- How do I know if a candidate’s lead is ‘outside the margin of error’? News reports about polling will often say that a candidate’s lead is “outside the margin of error” to indicate that a candidate’s lead is greater than what we would expect from sampling error, or that a race is “a statistical tie” if it’s too close to call.
- How do I know if there has been a change in the race? With new polling numbers coming out daily, it is common to see media reports that describe a candidate’s lead as growing or shrinking from poll to poll.
- How does the margin of error apply to subgroups? Generally, the reported margin of error for a poll applies to estimates that use the whole sample (e.g., all adults, all registered voters or all likely voters who were surveyed).
4 meanings: 1. a. aimed or fired at a target so close that it is unnecessary to make allowance for the drop in the course of.... Click for more definitions.
The meaning of POINT-BLANK is marked by no appreciable drop below initial horizontal line of flight. How to use point-blank in a sentence.
What's the origin of the phrase 'Point-blank range'? In the Late Middle Ages, when ‘point-blank’ was coined, archery and artillery targets were usually white. ‘Blank’ derives from the French ‘blanc’, which of course means white. ‘Point’ is a little more ambiguous. What was first meant by ‘point-blank range’ was rather more ...
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Political outcomes are always contingent; they cannot be predicted with certainty in advance. That does not mean, however, that outcomes are completely unpredictable. By accounting for the rules, how human behavior works, and existing realities, it is possible to reasonably predict what is likely to happen and explain what does happen.
