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As economic growth slows in 2024, the demand for labor is expected to soften, slowing the growth of payroll employment (the number of employees on businesses’ payrolls). The unemployment rate, which was 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, is projected to rise to 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 and then remain at 4.4 percent, on average, from 2025 to 2034 (see Table 2-1 ).
- An Update to the Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 20 Slides
Uncertainty of CBO’s Projections of the Growth of Real GDP....
- An Update to the Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 20 Slides
Uncertainty of CBO’s Projections of the Growth of Real GDP. CBO estimates that there is approximately a two-thirds chance that from 2024 to 2034, real GDP will grow by a total of between 15 percent and 29 percent, and the annual growth rate of real GDP will average between 1.3 percent and. 2.4 percent. GDP = gross domestic product.
- The consumer disconnect in an election year. Neale Mahoney, George P. Shultz Fellow at SIEPR and Professor of Economics, School of Humanities and Sciences
- COVID-19’s lingering labor effects. Gopi Shah Goda, SIEPR Senior Fellow and Professor (by courtesy) of Economics, School of Humanities and Sciences: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted many sectors of the economy, including labor markets.
- Congress' fiscal cliff problem. John Cochrane, SIEPR Senior Fellow and the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution: When you kick the can long enough, you run out of road.
- Year of the WFH pancake. Nicholas Bloom, SIEPR Senior Fellow and the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, School of Humanities and Sciences: It’s the $64,000 workplace question: Will workers continue to be allowed to work from home (WFH)?
Sep 24, 2024 · S&P Global Ratings expects the U.S. economy to expand 2.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 (on an annual average basis). The growth forecasts are 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point higher, respectively, compared with our June forecasts, partly reflecting the impulse from financial conditions that turned more positive and partly on stronger core goods consumption than previously expected. On a year-end ...
- Economic growth is likely to decelerate in 2024 as the effects of monetary policy take a broader toll and post-pandemic tailwinds fade. We expect real GDP growth to walk the line between a slight expansion and contraction for much of next year, also known as a soft landing.
- We assume the hiking cycle is over, leaving the Fed Funds on hold at 5.25%-5.5% until the middle of 2024. If inflation continues its moderating trajectory over the coming quarters, we think it is likely the FOMC will start to slowly normalize policy rates near the midpoint of next year.
- The U.S. consumer could begin to bend, but not break. There are numerous reasons to expect consumer spending growth to slow next year from its firm pace in 2023: diminished excess savings, plateauing wage gains, low savings rates and less pent-up demand.
- The larger-than-expected fiscal boost to the U.S. economy in 2023 could flip to a slight headwind in 2024. The fiscal deficit roughly doubled to $1.84 trillion—7.4% of GDP—in fiscal 2023 from $950 billion in 2022.
The growth rate of the labor force is projected to decrease in 2024, increase in 2025, and then moderate after that. 8 That assessment represents the net impact of factors that have opposite effects on the size of the labor force. The surge in immigration that began in 2021 and is projected to continue through 2026 is expected to expand the labor force over the entire 2024–2034 period.
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Feb 2, 2024 · Significant forecast divergence over the U.S. economic outlook in 2024: Our Consensus for 2024 GDP growth is currently 1.5%, though this figure will be revised higher in the coming weeks in light of the recent large upward surprise to Q4 2023 data. However, the spread between our panelists’ forecasts is large: Our most pessimistic panelist ...
