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- For the current year, we could see oil prices rise sharply in reaction to sanctions and the war. Add in inflation and the price of oil is primed to explode in 2022. JP Morgan is predicting oil will hit $185 per barrel during the year. That would be a new peak price for crude oil and would result in even higher prices for consumers.
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What will global oil demand look like in 2022?
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How much did crude oil cost in 2022?
Will world oil demand increase in 2q22?
- World oil demand is set to contract by 110 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22, reaching 100.8 mb/d, up by 130 kb/d compared with last month’s Report. Strong gasoil use in key consuming countries outweighs weak European and Asian petrochemical deliveries.
- World oil supply fell 190 kb/d in November to 101.7 mb/d, breaking a five-month uptrend, after Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries curbed supply in line with lower OPEC+ output targets.
- Global refinery throughputs surged 2.2 mb/d in November to the highest since January 2020, resulting in sharply lower diesel and gasoline cracks and refinery margins.
- Russian oil exports increased by 270 kb/d to 8.1 mb/d, the highest since April as diesel exports rose by 300 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d. Crude oil loadings were largely unchanged m-o-m, even as shipments to the EU fell by 430 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d.
- The relentless deterioration of the economy and higher prices sparked by an OPEC+ plan to cut supply are slowing world oil demand, which is now expected to contract by 340 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22.
- World oil supply rose by 300 kb/d in September to 101.2 mb/d, with OPEC+ providing over 85% of the gains. After a massive 2.1 mb/d boost from 2Q22 to 3Q22, growth is forecast to decelerate markedly, to 170 kb/d from 3Q22 to 4Q22, following the OPEC+ decision to cut official production targets by 2 mb/d from November – a 1 mb/d cut to actual output given the bloc’s underperformance vis-à-vis quotas.
- Global refining activity is responding to the slowdown in demand and lower refinery margins, with 3Q22 runs coming in lower than expected. Our forecasts for 4Q22 and 2023 have been revised down by 340 kb/d and 720 kb/d, respectively, following demand downgrades and OPEC+ production cuts.
- Russian oil exports fell by 230 kb/d to 7.5 mb/d in September, down 560 kb/d from pre-war levels. Shipments to the EU dropped by 390 kb/d m-o-m. With less than two months to go before a ban on Russian crude oil imports comes into effect, EU countries have yet to diversify more than half of their pre-war import levels away from Russia.
- World oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.9 mb/d in 2Q22 from 4.4 mb/d in 1Q22 and is now projected to ease to 490 kb/d on average in the second half of the year on a more tempered economic expansion and higher prices.
- Russia shut in nearly 1 mb/d in April, driving down world oil supply by 710 kb/d to 98.1 mb/d. Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the US along with a slowdown in demand growth is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption.
- Global refinery margins have surged to extraordinarily high levels due to depleted product inventories and constrained refinery activity. Throughputs in April fell 1.4 mb/d to 78 mb/d, the lowest since May 2021, largely driven by China.
- Global observed oil inventories declined by a further 45 mb during March and are now a total 1.2 billion barrels lower since June 2020. In the OECD, the release of 24.7 mb of government stocks during March halted the precipitous decline in industry inventories.
Jan 4, 2023 · The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $100/b in 2022, and the WTI spot price averaged $95/b. In the first half of 2022, geopolitical tension with Russia, culminating with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, contributed to crude oil price increases.
Jul 13, 2022 · Highlights. Higher prices and a deteriorating economic environment have started to take their toll on oil demand, but strong power generation use and a recovery in China are providing a partial offset. Global oil demand growth has been marginally reduced to 1.7 mb/d in 2022, reaching 99.2 mb/d.
21 hours ago · Oil prices set to rise as Middle East tensions worsen, adding to cost-of-living crisis Published: October 2, 2024 2:45am EDT. Jamie ... accounting for about 4% of world oil production last year.
Oct 12, 2022 · The weakening economy around the world will drive down demand for oil in the coming months, according to OPEC, while the U.S. government warns that households will pay more for heat this winter.
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