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EIU forecasts that the global economy will continue to skirt a recession, growing by 2.3% in 2024 - the same rate as estimated in 2023. Faster growth in Europe (led by Germany) will counteract softer US expansion in 2024, while moderate stimulus will stabilise China’s economy.
- Overview. Global recovery remains slow, with growing regional divergences and little margin for policy error. The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.
- Projections Table. Download Data.
- Chapters in the Report. Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies. Divergent growth prospects across the world’s regions pose a challenge to returning to prepandemic output trends.
- Statistical Appendix. Statistical Appendix: Data assumptions, conventions, and classifications. Statistical Appendix Table A: Key Global Economic Indicators.
Sep 24, 2024 · The forecast for global growth five years from now—at 3.1 percent—is at its lowest in decades. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.
The median forecast of global growth sets at 2.1% in 2023, a downward revision from the projected 2022 at 2.9% (Figure 1). Asian countries like India and some southeast Asian countries are expected to support global growth. The macroeconomic outlook is uncertain and risks to the global economy remain skewed to the downside
Global Economic Outlook – December 2023. The global outlook: Limited upside in the short term. Deceleration in growth in some of the world’s largest economies, coupled with little impetus elsewhere, could see global GDP growth easing slightly in 2024. Weaker momentum should help push down inflation, with average world inflation expected
Political uncertainty is high, with uncertainties around future government support and the likelihood of structural reforms. Nevertheless, we expect growth of 3% in 2024. After the highest 2022 CPI inflation rate in the CEE (15.3%), we forecast single‐digit inflation for 2023 and 2024 (9.3 and 4.1%, respectively).
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What is the economic outlook for 2023?
a synchronized slowdown in Europe, Latin America, North America and Asia will likely push the global economy into a recession in 2023. Our view is that global GDP growth will fall from 6% in 2021 to only 1.9% in 2023 — the weakest performance since 1991 outside of the financial crisis and pandemic. We anticipate growth around 3.5% in 2024.
