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- Geopolitical uncertainties, China’s exit from three years of Covid restrictions, interest rate hikes from central banks, and looming recessions in many economies will continue to pull oil and natural gas prices in both directions, depending on the prevailing market sentiment.
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Jan 13, 2021 · Numerous uncertainties affect oil and petroleum price forecasts for 2021. Current forecasts indicate moderate and stable oil prices with commercial inventories, additional supply, and high OPEC spare
- Oil at $80 Sows The Seeds of Volatility in Supply and Demand
- Cruising Altitude: Physical Tightening Hits Top of The Price Band
- Draws Roll on in 4q21 - 2022 Balances Reflect A More Delicate Dance
- Us Crude Oil at The Heart of Global Deficits
- Delta Fatigue: Deep Lockdown Risk Fades, But Regional Divides Grow
As markets approach normalization, higher prices breed reactivity in fundamentals, with supply gradually eclipsing the demand story 1. After the demand surge. Oil markets are objectively in a good place with a clear path towards structural tightening for the first time since the 2014 crash. Physical market tightening picked up pace as the vaccine-i...
Momentum has nudged prices higher, but global deficits may be at their peak with no change to structural price determinants in 2022 1. Short-term momentum pushes 3Q2021 prices higher, but we see no catalyst for a revision to our 2022 outlook. As a result of recent upside pressure and physical indicators, we have lifted our outlook for 3Q2021 prices...
Short term tightening to endure, but 2022 looks less clear cut. The relative slowdown in the rate of tightening in the first quarter gave way to a sharp acceleration in draws over the second quarte...
Perfect storm strikes US crude storage tanksThe acceleration in global crude market tightening over the past couple of months has played out most visibly in weekly US statistics, particularly for c...The combination of high exports and high runs (90+% capacity utilization) have been the main drivers of the nearly 50 MMbbl in crude stock draws over the past three months, yet some of the math is...WTI is now more expensive than (or at parity with) 2nd month DME futures for Mideast medium sour crude and ~$1.60 cheaper than its Atlantic Basin cousin light sweet ICE Brent, yet exports remain ro...Global oil demand recovery plays out according to plan, but variants and slow vaccination outside of developed markets mean hopes of a swift boom in “pent-up” demand above 2019 levels looks unlikel...In our base case outlook, refined fuels consumption blossoms 4.6 MMb/d between June and December. Light distillates account for 2.3MM b/d of this forecast and are on their way to meet expectations...One quarter of this increase is in jet fuel and kerosene, concentrated in the US, Asia (ex. mainland China), Latin America and Europe. The delta variant increasingly puts this consumption at risk,...Dec 14, 2021 · Global oil demand is now set to rise by 5.4 mb/d in 2021 and by 3.3 mb/d in 2022, when it returns to pre-pandemic levels at 99.5 mb/d. Global oil production is poised to outpace demand from December, led by growth in the US and OPEC+ countries.
- World oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.9 mb/d in 2Q22 from 4.4 mb/d in 1Q22 and is now projected to ease to 490 kb/d on average in the second half of the year on a more tempered economic expansion and higher prices.
- Russia shut in nearly 1 mb/d in April, driving down world oil supply by 710 kb/d to 98.1 mb/d. Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the US along with a slowdown in demand growth is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption.
- Global refinery margins have surged to extraordinarily high levels due to depleted product inventories and constrained refinery activity. Throughputs in April fell 1.4 mb/d to 78 mb/d, the lowest since May 2021, largely driven by China.
- Global observed oil inventories declined by a further 45 mb during March and are now a total 1.2 billion barrels lower since June 2020. In the OECD, the release of 24.7 mb of government stocks during March halted the precipitous decline in industry inventories.
Jan 19, 2022 · World oil demand is now seen rising by 5.5 mb/d in 2021 and by 3.3 mb/d in 2022, returning to its pre-Covid levels of 99.7 mb/d. In 1Q22, demand is set for a seasonal decline, exacerbated by increased teleworking and reduced air travel.
Jan 25, 2022 · Oil prices rose over 2% on Tuesday on concerns supplies could become tight due to Ukraine-Russia tensions, threats to infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates and struggles by OPEC+ to hit its...
Nov 18, 2021 · We forecast global crude oil demand will exceed global supply through the end of the year, contribute to some additional inventory draws, and keep the Brent crude oil price above $80 per barrel (b) through December 2021.
