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Jul 29, 2024 · Despite increasing warnings regarding climate change, global demand has continued to rise over the last few years and could continue. In this graphic, Visual Capitalist partnered with Range ETFs to explore the global oil demand and determine which region will demand the most in 2045.
In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), global oil demand rebounds and surpasses 2019 levels by 2023, despite high prices; demand peaks in the mid-2030s at 103 million barrels per day (mb/d). In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), stronger policy action brings forward the peak in oil demand to the mid-2020s.
- World oil demand is set to contract by 110 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22, reaching 100.8 mb/d, up by 130 kb/d compared with last month’s Report. Strong gasoil use in key consuming countries outweighs weak European and Asian petrochemical deliveries.
- World oil supply fell 190 kb/d in November to 101.7 mb/d, breaking a five-month uptrend, after Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries curbed supply in line with lower OPEC+ output targets.
- Global refinery throughputs surged 2.2 mb/d in November to the highest since January 2020, resulting in sharply lower diesel and gasoline cracks and refinery margins.
- Russian oil exports increased by 270 kb/d to 8.1 mb/d, the highest since April as diesel exports rose by 300 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d. Crude oil loadings were largely unchanged m-o-m, even as shipments to the EU fell by 430 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d.
Jan 24, 2024 · The Global Energy Perspective 2023 models the outlook for demand and supply of energy commodities across a 1.5°C pathway, aligned with the Paris Agreement, and four bottom-up energy transition scenarios. These energy transition scenarios examine outcomes ranging from warming of 1.6°C to 2.9°C by 2100 (scenario descriptions outlined below in ...
- World oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.9 mb/d in 2Q22 from 4.4 mb/d in 1Q22 and is now projected to ease to 490 kb/d on average in the second half of the year on a more tempered economic expansion and higher prices.
- Russia shut in nearly 1 mb/d in April, driving down world oil supply by 710 kb/d to 98.1 mb/d. Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the US along with a slowdown in demand growth is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption.
- Global refinery margins have surged to extraordinarily high levels due to depleted product inventories and constrained refinery activity. Throughputs in April fell 1.4 mb/d to 78 mb/d, the lowest since May 2021, largely driven by China.
- Global observed oil inventories declined by a further 45 mb during March and are now a total 1.2 billion barrels lower since June 2020. In the OECD, the release of 24.7 mb of government stocks during March halted the precipitous decline in industry inventories.
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year. The report provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance.
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What will global oil demand look like in 2022?
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Will oil demand increase in 2023?
We have lifted our 3Q2021 global crude oil demand outlook by 0.3 MMb/d to 99 MMb/d, now 6.6 MMb/d above 1Q2021levels. We have maintained our expectations for 2022 demand levels to average 101 MMb/d, in line with 2019 annual average levels, with 2H2022 to exceed 2H2019 levels by 0.9 MMb/d on average.
