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  1. We project the quarterly pace of economic growth to moderate in the near term, decelerating to about 1.5 percent annualized in 2024Q2. Growth accelerates thereafter, ramping back up above 2.0 percent by 2025Q2. The unemployment rate is projected to creep up through 2025Q2, reaching 4.0 percent.

  2. 2024 than in 2023 include the easing of upward pressures on the prices of goods because of improving supply chains, rising unemployment, and higher long-term interest rates. Those factors will be partly offset in 2024 by strong growth in the prices of some services.

  3. Sep 20, 2024 · The Q3 2024 forecast indicates how robust consumer spending, high business investment, and lower interest rates have kept optimism about the US economy intact. However, risks like geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflation remain.

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  4. Nov 14, 2023 · Our economists forecast just under 2% consumption growth, with real disposable income growth of nearly 3% partly offset by a 1pp rise in the saving rate and expect the FOMC to deliver its first rate cut in 2024Q4 once core PCE inflation falls below 2.5%.

  5. Oct 23, 2024 · US Economy Displays Continued Resilience. US economic data continue to surprise to the upside, revealing ongoing resilience despite looming uncertainties and persistent shocks. We now expect real GDP to expand by 2.6 percent year-over-year in 2024, an upward revision from 2.4 percent.

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  6. Sep 26, 2024 · Current Release. Quick Guide: GDP Releases. Current release: September 26, 2024. Next release: October 30, 2024. Personal Income and Outlays, August 2024. Personal income increased $50.5 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in August.

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  8. We project the U.S. economy to maintain healthy momentum throughout our forecast window, with a modest deceleration in the near term. We expect real GDP growth to average about 2.0 percent annualized in the second half of 2024, while the unemployment rate continues inching up to 4.0 percent. Meaningful