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Nov 14, 2023 · Our economists forecast just under 2% consumption growth, with real disposable income growth of nearly 3% partly offset by a 1pp rise in the saving rate and expect the FOMC to deliver its first rate cut in 2024Q4 once core PCE inflation falls below 2.5%.
- Consumer spending. The near-term outlook for consumer spending turns on two big questions: 1. What will happen when consumers finish running down their pandemic savings?
- Housing. The housing sector outperformed the broader economy in the wake of the pandemic, as buyers and sellers found ways to navigate the pandemic’s restrictions.10 Then the tables turned.
- Business investment. Businesses have ramped up investment since the initial impact of the pandemic, but they have been selective about what they are investing in.
- Foreign trade. Recent US trade data has been surprisingly strong considering that both China and Europe—two major drivers of the global economy—are experiencing slower than expected growth.
Oct 23, 2024 · US economic data continue to surprise to the upside, revealing ongoing resilience despite looming uncertainties and persistent shocks. We now expect real GDP to expand by 2.6 percent year-over-year in 2024, an upward revision from 2.4 percent.
2024 than in 2023 include the easing of upward pressures on the prices of goods because of improving supply chains, rising unemployment, and higher long-term interest rates. Those factors will be partly offset in 2024 by strong growth in the prices of some services.
The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2024–2025. Jacob T. Burton, Gabriel M. Ehrlich, Kyle W. Henson, Daniil Manaenkov, and Yinuo Zhang. University of Michigan. Executive Summary. Bottom Line. With trend inflation converging to normal, we expect the Fed to pivot soon to focus on preserving full employment. We believe that it will succeed.
Sep 26, 2024 · Current Release. Quick Guide: Personal Income and Outlays Releases. Current release: September 27, 2024. Next release: October 31, 2024. International Economic Accounts. U.S. International Transactions, 2nd Quarter 2024.
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Sep 24, 2024 · S&P Global Ratings expects the U.S. economy to expand 2.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025 (on an annual average basis). The growth forecasts are 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point higher, respectively, compared with our June forecasts, partly reflecting the impulse from financial conditions that turned more positive and partly on stronger core goods ...
