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1. www.nber.org › research › business-cycle-datingBusiness Cycle Dating | NBER - National Bureau of Economic ...

   www.nber.org › research › business-cycle-dating

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   The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the months of peaks and troughs of economic activity. Expansions are the periods between a trough and a peak; recessions are the periods between a peak and a trough.

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2. www.reuters.com › business › is-it-over-yet-still-noIs it over yet? Still no recession end date as U.S. economy ...

   www.reuters.com › business › is-it-over-yet-still-no

   May 4, 2021 · Common sense and a lot of data say no, but the Business Cycle Dating Committee, a panel organized by the National Bureau of Economic Research that acts as the official arbiter of U.S. recessions,...

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4. www.nber.org › news › business-cycle-datingBusiness Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021

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   Jul 19, 2021 · The NBER chronology does not identify the precise moment that the economy entered a recession or expansion. In the NBER’s convention for measuring the duration of a recession, the first month of the recession is the month following the peak and the last month is the month of the trough.

5. fred.stlouisfed.org › series › JHDUSRGDPBRDates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession ...

   fred.stlouisfed.org › series › JHDUSRGDPBR

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   Jul 26, 2024 · Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q2 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

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6. www.factcheck.org › 2021 › 10The COVID-19 Recession Officially Ended Before Biden Took ...

   www.factcheck.org › 2021 › 10

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   Oct 18, 2021 · Posted on October 18, 2021. The recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic officially lasted just two months and ended in April 2020. But Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg wrongly credited...

7. www.nber.org › research › dataUS Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions | NBER

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   Mar 14, 2023 · Recessions — contractions in economic activity — start in the month after a peak in the business cycle, and end in the month of the trough.

8. People also ask

   When is the last month of a recession?

   • In the NBER’s convention for measuring the duration of a recession, the first month of the recession is the month following the peak and the last month is the month of the trough. Because the most recent trough was in April 2020, the last month of the recession was April 2020, and May 2020 was the first month of the subsequent expansion.

   Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021

   www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021

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   Is a new recession a continuation of the February 2020 peak?

   • The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession associated with the February 2020 peak. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date. The Month of the Trough

   Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021

   www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021

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   When does a recession start?

   • Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%.

   Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

   fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHDUSRGDPBR

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   How does the NBER chronology measure a recession?

   • The NBER chronology does not identify the precise moment that the economy entered a recession or expansion. In the NBER’s convention for measuring the duration of a recession, the first month of the recession is the month following the peak and the last month is the month of the trough.

   Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021

   www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021

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   How long does a recession last?

   • The NBER’s traditional definition of a recession involves a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months. For example, the previous shortest recession occurred in the first half of 1980 and lasted six months.

   Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021

   www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021

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   When did a recession start & end?

   • This upward drift occurs with the four recessions that begin in 1948, 1953, 1957, and 1960 and again with the four recessions that begin in 1970, 1973, 1980, and 1981. In other words, both 1948 to 1960 and 1970 to 1982 are 13-year periods where recessions accumulated more quickly than average.

   Recessions and the Trend in the US Unemployment Rate

   www.clevelandfed.org/publications/economic-commentary/2021/ec-202101-recessions-and-the-trend-in-the-us-unemployment-rate

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9. www.clevelandfed.org › publications › economicRecessions and the Trend in the US Unemployment Rate

   www.clevelandfed.org › publications › economic

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   Feb 8, 2021 · The unemployment rate in the United States falls slowly in expansions, and it may not reach its previous low point before the next recession begins. This feature suggests that the unemployment rate trends up with frequent recessions and trends down when recessions are infrequent.