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Jan 18, 2018 · The 2014-16 collapse in oil prices was driven by a growing supply glut, but failed to deliver the boost to global growth that many had expected. In the event, the benefits of substantially lower oil prices were muted by the low responsiveness of economic activity in key oil-importing emerging markets, the effects on U.S. activity of a sharp contraction in energy investment and an abrupt ...
Jul 18, 2017 · ISBN: 9781484310175. ISSN: 1018-5941. The decline in oil prices in 2014-16 was one of the sharpest in history, and put to test the resilience of oil exporters. We examine the degree to which economic fundamentals entering the oil price decline explain the impact on economic growth across oil exporting economies, and derive policy implications ...
- Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman, Andrew J Swiston
- 2017
Dec 16, 2014 · Economists now estimate that Russia’s GDP will shrink at least 4.5 percent in 2015 if oil says below $60 per barrel. The plunging price of oil has also caused the ruble’s value to collapse ...
Oil Demand Robust and Responds to Low Oil Prices Global Oil Consumption, y/y change, kb/d Oil demand has been stronger than initial expectations in 2015 driven in part by cheaper oil prices; latest data suggest growth is slowing down, but for 2016, oil demand growth is still expected to be above 1 mb/d-- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
- What Played A Role in The Oil Price Decline in 2014
- Was The Decline Foreseeable as of June 2014?
- Concluding Remarks
- References
After a period of relative stability, the Brent price of crude oil – commonly considered a proxy for the global price of oil – recently experienced a sustained decline that rivalled some of the most dramatic oil price declines to date. Figure 1 shows that the cumulative decline between June and December 2014 alone was 44% (or $49), and the slide of...
The central question in this debate is to what extent the decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 was foreseeable as of June 2014 and to what extent it was associated with surprises triggered by oil demand and supply shocks taking place after June 2014. Answering this question requires the use of an oil price forecasting model. O...
The fact that the forecasting model as of December 2014 predicted a small additional decline in the price of oil to about $60 in January, followed by a gradual recovery to about $70 by June 2015, suggests that further declines in the price of oil in 2015 can only be explained by additional shocks. Indeed, the fact that the Brent price fell below $5...
Arezki, R, and O Blanchard (2015), “The 2014 Oil Price Slump: Seven Key Questions,” VoxEU.org, 13 January. Baumeister, C, and L Kilian (2014), “A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil,” CEPR Discussion Paper 10162. Baumeister, C and L Kilian (2015), “Understanding the Decline in the ...
That meant that the price of petroleum did not change as much in Asia and Europe as in the United States. If the WTI price of petroleum declined from an average price of $105.79 a barrel in June 2014 to $47.22 a barrel in January 2015, then the WTI price in euros went from an average price of €77.82 in June 2014 to €41.44 in June 2015.
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Why did oil prices collapse in 2014-16?
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1985/86 & 2014/15 Real oil price (US dollars per barrel, constant 2014 prices) Source: World Bank, Bloomberg. Note: The latest observation is August 2016. The nominal price is deflated by the US CPI. Oil Price Collapses - 3: After a Period of High Prices 15 0 30 60 90 120 150 Jan-65 Jan-75 Jan-85 Jan-95 Jan-05 Jan-15 Both came after a period of ...
