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Jan 18, 2018 · The 2014-16 collapse in oil prices was driven by a growing supply glut, but failed to deliver the boost to global growth that many had expected. In the event, the benefits of substantially lower oil prices were muted by the low responsiveness of economic activity in key oil-importing emerging markets, the effects on U.S. activity of a sharp contraction in energy investment and an abrupt ...
Jul 18, 2017 · The decline in oil prices in 2014-16 was one of the sharpest in history, and put to test the resilience of oil exporters. We examine the degree to which economic fundamentals entering the oil price decline explain the impact on economic growth across oil exporting economies, and derive policy implications as to what factors help to mitigate the negative effects. We fi\fnd that pre-existing ...
- Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman, Andrew J Swiston
- 2017
Dec 16, 2014 · Economists now estimate that Russia’s GDP will shrink at least 4.5 percent in 2015 if oil says below $60 per barrel. The plunging price of oil has also caused the ruble’s value to collapse ...
Starting in mid-June 2014, petroleum prices began to fall worldwide, and that drop continued at a significantly accelerated rate through the end of January 2015. After peaking at $107.95 a barrel on June 20, 2014, petroleum prices plunged to $44.08 a barrel by January 28, 2015, a drop of 59.2 percent in a little over 7 months. 7. Not
- 810KB
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- What Played A Role in The Oil Price Decline in 2014
- Was The Decline Foreseeable as of June 2014?
- Concluding Remarks
- References
After a period of relative stability, the Brent price of crude oil – commonly considered a proxy for the global price of oil – recently experienced a sustained decline that rivalled some of the most dramatic oil price declines to date. Figure 1 shows that the cumulative decline between June and December 2014 alone was 44% (or $49), and the slide of...
The central question in this debate is to what extent the decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 was foreseeable as of June 2014 and to what extent it was associated with surprises triggered by oil demand and supply shocks taking place after June 2014. Answering this question requires the use of an oil price forecasting model. O...
The fact that the forecasting model as of December 2014 predicted a small additional decline in the price of oil to about $60 in January, followed by a gradual recovery to about $70 by June 2015, suggests that further declines in the price of oil in 2015 can only be explained by additional shocks. Indeed, the fact that the Brent price fell below $5...
Arezki, R, and O Blanchard (2015), “The 2014 Oil Price Slump: Seven Key Questions,” VoxEU.org, 13 January. Baumeister, C, and L Kilian (2014), “A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices with an Application to Crude Oil,” CEPR Discussion Paper 10162. Baumeister, C and L Kilian (2015), “Understanding the Decline in the ...
Mar 2, 2016 · The stunning drop in oil prices, from a peak of $115 per barrel in June 2014 to under $35 at the end of February 2016, has been one of the most important global macroeconomic developments of the past 20 months. The sharp fall is broadly similar in magnitude to the decline in 1985-1986, when OPEC members reversed earlier production cuts, and in ...
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Why did oil prices drop in 2014?
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Since 2014, the oil market has been adding stocks every month with EIA/IEA expecting this to continue well in 2016; although the stock-build will slow down, it is estimated to stay above 1 mb/d by end of 2016. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Source: EIA
