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- Global oil demand is now set to rise by 5.4 mb/d in 2021 and by 3.3 mb/d in 2022, when it returns to pre-pandemic levels at 99.5 mb/d.
www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2021
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Mar 17, 2021 · The staggering inventory surplus that built up last year is being worked off and global oil stocks, excluding strategic reserves, will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021. And yet, there may be no return to “normal” for the oil market in the post-Covid era.
- Global oil demand is set to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022, rising 5.4 mb/d in 2021 and a further 3.1 mb/d next year. The OECD accounts for 1.3 mb/d of 2022 growth while non-OECD countries contribute 1.8 mb/d.
- World oil supply is expected to grow at a faster rate in 2022, with the US driving gains of 1.6 mb/d from producers outside the OPEC+ alliance. That leaves room for OPEC+ to boost crude oil production by 1.4 mb/d above its July 2021-March 2022 target to meet demand growth.
- Global refinery throughput in 2021 is expected to recover half of the 7.4 mb/d fall in 2020, lagging behind demand growth for refined products as surplus inventories are drawn down.
- OECD industry stocks held relatively steady in April, at 2 926 mb, but fell 1.6 mb below the pre-Covid 2015-19 average for the first time in more than a year.
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- Cruising Altitude: Physical Tightening Hits Top of The Price Band
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- Us Crude Oil at The Heart of Global Deficits
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As markets approach normalization, higher prices breed reactivity in fundamentals, with supply gradually eclipsing the demand story 1. After the demand surge. Oil markets are objectively in a good place with a clear path towards structural tightening for the first time since the 2014 crash. Physical market tightening picked up pace as the vaccine-i...
Momentum has nudged prices higher, but global deficits may be at their peak with no change to structural price determinants in 2022 1. Short-term momentum pushes 3Q2021 prices higher, but we see no catalyst for a revision to our 2022 outlook. As a result of recent upside pressure and physical indicators, we have lifted our outlook for 3Q2021 prices...
Short term tightening to endure, but 2022 looks less clear cut. The relative slowdown in the rate of tightening in the first quarter gave way to a sharp acceleration in draws over the second quarte...
Perfect storm strikes US crude storage tanksThe acceleration in global crude market tightening over the past couple of months has played out most visibly in weekly US statistics, particularly for c...The combination of high exports and high runs (90+% capacity utilization) have been the main drivers of the nearly 50 MMbbl in crude stock draws over the past three months, yet some of the math is...WTI is now more expensive than (or at parity with) 2nd month DME futures for Mideast medium sour crude and ~$1.60 cheaper than its Atlantic Basin cousin light sweet ICE Brent, yet exports remain ro...Global oil demand recovery plays out according to plan, but variants and slow vaccination outside of developed markets mean hopes of a swift boom in “pent-up” demand above 2019 levels looks unlikel...In our base case outlook, refined fuels consumption blossoms 4.6 MMb/d between June and December. Light distillates account for 2.3MM b/d of this forecast and are on their way to meet expectations...One quarter of this increase is in jet fuel and kerosene, concentrated in the US, Asia (ex. mainland China), Latin America and Europe. The delta variant increasingly puts this consumption at risk,...Jan 4, 2022 · Crude oil prices increased in 2021 as increasing COVID-19 vaccination rates, loosening pandemic-related restrictions, and a growing economy resulted in global petroleum demand rising faster than petroleum supply. The spot price of Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, started the year at $50 per barrel (b) and increased to a high of $86/b in ...
BOSTON— Economies opening up after the COVID-19 pandemic will release huge pent-up demand for travel, products, and services requiring oil, leading to one of the strongest-ever growth periods for oil demand over the next two years.
Apr 14, 2021 · The International Energy Agency has sharply raised its world oil demand estimate for 2021, pointing to further signs that the global economy is recovering faster than previously expected, particularly in the US and China.
