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  1. The overall demand estimate for 2020 is largely unchanged at 91.7 mb/d (down 8.4 mb/d versus 2019), as is the estimate for 2021 at 97.2 mb/d, (up 5.5 mb/d year-on-year). Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement.

    • Recap 2020
    • Short-Term Up to 2025
    • Long-Term Up to 2040

    Demand has partially recoveredsince April 2020 but still ended the year approximately 9 million barrels per day (MMb/d) below the 2019 level, with continued COVID-19-related lockdown measures in January 2021 keeping it around 6 MMb/d lower than January 2019. Supply remained robust until April 2020 and then dropped by 13 to 14 MMb/d in May, driven b...

    Oil demand is expected to return to 2019 levels by late 2021 to early 2022, depending on the duration of lockdowns and the pace of GDP recovery. Based on our Global Energy Perspectivereference-case demand insights, current OPEC+ intervention will be sufficient to help balance the market in 2021, with prices remaining at a sustained level of $50 to ...

    Long-term equilibrium oil prices have decreased by $10 to $15/bbl compared with pre-COVID-19 outlooks, as driven by a flattening cost curve and lower demand. Under an OPEC-control scenario, in which OPEC maintains its market share, we see a $50 to $60/bbl equilibrium price range in the long term, fueling 10 to 11 MMb/d US shale oil and 11 to 13 MMb...

  2. Oct 26, 2020 · According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply rose to 91.7 million barrels per day in Q3 2020, following a nine-year low of 86.9 million barrels per day (bpd) at the end of Q2 2020. After OPEC and its allies reduced production cuts from 9.7 to 7.7 million bpd in August, recovery in countries outside of OPEC has stalled.

  3. Sep 28, 2021 · Global oil demand is forecast to rise by 17.6 million b/d between a long-term period of 2020 and 2045, growing to 108.2 million b/d in 2045 from 90.6 million b/d in 2020.

  4. Oct 8, 2020 · With the coronavirus pandemic prompting a re-examination of the oil market and countries becoming more aggressive on their sustainability targets, OPEC on Oct. 8 estimated that global demand would hit 109.3 million b/d in 2040 before declining to 109.1 million b/d in 2045 and plateauing "over a relatively long period."

    • Herman Wang
  5. Feb 9, 2020 · 2020 supply stack Production Oil sands from sanctioned projects 0.3 OPEC Gulf Shale oil (including production from spare capacity 92.3 –37.1 2.4 41.7 7.8 4.1 100.8 37.6 MMb/d NGL and other liquids2 Other3 OPEC Gulf Shale oil4 Oil sands Deepwater Shallow water Crude and condensate = 76.5 79.3 Global oil-supply growth 2020–40, MMb/d ...

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  7. Mar 13, 2020 · The Oil Price Shock (s) of 2020. COVID-19 has created a demand shock in the oil market as social distancing reduces movement and daily travel for more and more of us each day. At present, most of the reporting agencies expect oil demand growth this year to be largely flat, well below the 1.2 million barrels/day (mmb/d) expected just a few ...