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This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth.
- Station K and a Indices
The NOAA scale describes general effects for various levels...
- Station K and a Indices
This page provides a prediction of the aurora’s visibility tonight and tomorrow night in the charts below. The animations further down show what the aurora’s been up to over the last 24 hours and estimates what the next 30 minutes will be like.
The aurora does not need to be directly overhead but can be observed from as much as a 1000 km away when the aurora is bright and if conditions are right. A short term forecast (~30 minutes) along with the last 24 hours of activity can be found on the Aurora - 30 Minute Forecast page.
The OVATION Aurora Forecast Model shows the intensity and location of the aurora predicted for the time shown at the top of the map. This probability forecast is based on current solar wind conditions measured at L1, but using a fixed 30-minute delay time between L1 and Earth.
Oct 21, 2021 · Drier-than-average conditions are favored in south-central Alaska, southern California, the Southwest, and the Southeast. The forecast for the remainder of the U.S. shows equal chances for below-, near- or above-average precipitation during winter months.
1 hour ago · The aurora forecast is updated daily at midnight UTC. Forecast: Auroral activity will be high. Weather permitting, highly active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Utqiaġvik to Bethel, Dillingham and Ketchikan, and visible low on the horizon from King Salmon. Moon phase: Waning Gibbous.
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What weather can the U.S. expect in the second winter of a double-dip La Niña? The Climate Prediction Center’s Mike Halpert lays it out in his discussion of the November update to NOAA’s winter outlook.
