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Dec 14, 2022 · World oil demand is set to contract by 110 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22, reaching 100.8 mb/d, up by 130 kb/d compared with last month’s Report. Strong gasoil use in key consuming countries outweighs weak European and Asian petrochemical deliveries.
- Oil Market Report - October 2022 – Analysis - IEA
World oil demand is now forecast to average 101.3 mb/d in...
- Oil Market Report - October 2022 – Analysis - IEA
Jun 20, 2024 · Global crude oil prices, measured in US dollars per cubic meter. This data is not adjusted for inflation.
- World oil demand growth is forecast to slow to 1.9 mb/d in 2Q22 from 4.4 mb/d in 1Q22 and is now projected to ease to 490 kb/d on average in the second half of the year on a more tempered economic expansion and higher prices.
- Russia shut in nearly 1 mb/d in April, driving down world oil supply by 710 kb/d to 98.1 mb/d. Over time, steadily rising volumes from Middle East OPEC+ and the US along with a slowdown in demand growth is expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption.
- Global refinery margins have surged to extraordinarily high levels due to depleted product inventories and constrained refinery activity. Throughputs in April fell 1.4 mb/d to 78 mb/d, the lowest since May 2021, largely driven by China.
- Global observed oil inventories declined by a further 45 mb during March and are now a total 1.2 billion barrels lower since June 2020. In the OECD, the release of 24.7 mb of government stocks during March halted the precipitous decline in industry inventories.
Oil • Brent crude oil prices averaged $101/bbl in 2022, its highest level since 2013. • Oil consumption continued to increase, rising by 2.9 million barrels per day (b/d) to 97.3 million barrels per day (b/d), a smaller increase than was seen between 2020 and 2021. Consumption remained 0.7% below 2019 levels.
- The relentless deterioration of the economy and higher prices sparked by an OPEC+ plan to cut supply are slowing world oil demand, which is now expected to contract by 340 kb/d y-o-y in 4Q22.
- World oil supply rose by 300 kb/d in September to 101.2 mb/d, with OPEC+ providing over 85% of the gains. After a massive 2.1 mb/d boost from 2Q22 to 3Q22, growth is forecast to decelerate markedly, to 170 kb/d from 3Q22 to 4Q22, following the OPEC+ decision to cut official production targets by 2 mb/d from November – a 1 mb/d cut to actual output given the bloc’s underperformance vis-à-vis quotas.
- Global refining activity is responding to the slowdown in demand and lower refinery margins, with 3Q22 runs coming in lower than expected. Our forecasts for 4Q22 and 2023 have been revised down by 340 kb/d and 720 kb/d, respectively, following demand downgrades and OPEC+ production cuts.
- Russian oil exports fell by 230 kb/d to 7.5 mb/d in September, down 560 kb/d from pre-war levels. Shipments to the EU dropped by 390 kb/d m-o-m. With less than two months to go before a ban on Russian crude oil imports comes into effect, EU countries have yet to diversify more than half of their pre-war import levels away from Russia.
World Oil Demand World oil demand growth in 2022 is revised downwards from t he previous month’s assessment but still shows healthy growth of 3.1 mb/d, including the recently observed trend of burning more crude in power generation. Oil demand in the OECD is estimated to grow by 1.6 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by 1.5 mb/d.
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Monthly Oil Market Report 2022. The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year.
