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Apr 1, 2022 · The overall implication is that decision makers who need a better prediction of future spot oil prices should use less restricted futures-based models instead of the no-change forecasts, especially for the purpose of prediction of spot prices over longer horizons.
Jul 1, 2015 · This paper identifies the co-movements and causality, in both time and frequency domains, between crude oil spot and futures prices, using distinctive methods and data (maturity) and deriving new insights and implications for investment strategies and market forecasts.
- Chun-Ping Chang, Chun-Ping Chang, Chien-Chiang Lee
- 2015
Contrary to established views, futures prices are useful predictors of the spot price of crude oil. Futures curves constructed with end-of-month prices generate robust one-step-ahead forecast accu-. racy improvements of over 40 percent for the average spot price. Moreover, the predictive content.
May 1, 2014 · First, it allows us to correctly know what the situation (contango or backwardation) of crude oil markets is. The backwardation and contango conditions illuminate the trend of future spot prices, by which the firms with higher correlation to crude oil production can avoid risk via commodity futures.
- Pei-Fen Chen, Chien-Chiang Lee, Jhih-Hong Zeng
- 2014
Our findings reveal a deeper dependence structure between spot and futures prices for crude oil and hence may provide helpful guidance for investors and policy makers. The price discovery mechanism between futures prices and spot prices in oil markets has been a controversial subject for decades.
- Xiaoyi Feng, Shouyang Wang, Shuai Wang, Xun Zhang
- 2014
Sep 1, 2014 · The analysis highlights a key controversy within the extant literature, as to whether spot or futures prices are the main crude oil price indicator.
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