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- Under this scenario, all hub margins are expected to recover in line with utilization, but US and European margins would decline over the long term, with average margins approximately $2 per barrel lower in 2031–35 than in recent history. Margins in Asia would remain more stable, but still lower than recent history, in the long term.
www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-downstream-outlook-to-2035Global downstream outlook to 2035 | McKinsey - McKinsey & Company
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Jan 24, 2024 · In the Asian hub, refining margins would fall in line with European margins in the near term, due to the growth in net new announced refining capacity in the Middle East and China, which could put pressure on regional utilization.
- Energy Transition
- Delayed Transition
- Accelerated Transition
The Reference Case reflects a scenario in which future policies and trends follow existing patterns. Under this scenario, all hub margins are expected to recover in line with utilization, but US and European margins would decline over the long term, with average margins approximately $2 per barrel lower in 2031–35 than in recent history. Margins in...
In the Delayed Transition scenario, economic recovery from COVID-19 takes precedence over emissions reduction, and the energy transition proceeds at a slower pace. Under this scenario, global liquids demand would continue to grow through 2035, and hub utilization would remain strong. All hub margins would recover to historical levels and follow uti...
The Accelerated Transition is based on a scenario in which the sustainable energy transition proceeds at an accelerated pace. This scenario includes the potential impact of ten accelerated shifts, including increased use of biofuels, electric vehicles, and recycling. In this scenario, global liquids demand would peak in 2024 at 101 MMB/D. All hub m...
This includes data on taxation, global energy markets, oil products demand and international trade flows, fuel specifications, prices and margins, the integration with the petrochemical sector as well as the environmental performance of the EU fuel manufacturing industry.
US and European margins decline in the long term, with average margins ~$2/barrel lower in 2031–35 than in recent history. Asian margins remain more stable in the long term compared with other regions. — By the 2030s, the global refining value pool declines ~36% from 2015– 19 levels, with the 2031–35 global average at $100 billion.
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Mar 14, 2024 · Europe’s refineries have been in long-term decline, as major oil companies shut plants to try to meet net zero emissions targets and face the threat of electric vehicles.
- Lukanyo Mnyanda
2 days ago · Refining margins slumped further in September as gasoline, jet and diesel cracks deteriorated while crude prices improved on a relatively tighter market. As a result, global crude run estimates are further reduced by 180 kb/d to 82.8 mb/d for 2024 and by 210 kb/d to 83.4 mb/d in 2025, representing annual gains of 540 kb/d and 610 kb/d, respectively.
A recent slump in gasoline margins is indicative of fragility in the European fuels market. Crack spreads lost nearly $3/bl over four sessions as they fell to a two-month low as recently as 14 May, as export demand waned again.
