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- Countries outside the OPEC+ group will lead supply growth, and this growth will be enough to meet demand in the first half of 2023. However, non-OPEC+ growth is expected to fall short in the second half “when seasonal trends and China’s recovery are set to boost demand to record levels,” the agency noted.
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Non-OPEC+ will again drive global gains in 2024, projected at 1.2 mb/d after OPEC+ deepens its voluntary oil cuts. Russian crude export prices declined sharply in November, with Urals falling below the $60/bbl price cap on 6 December.
- Oil Market Report - July 2023 – Analysis - IEA
For 2023, global production is forecast to increase by 1.6...
- Oil Market Report - July 2023 – Analysis - IEA
For 2023, the forecast for world oil demand growth remain broadly unchanged at 2.3 mbs /d, with the OECD projected to grow by almost 0.1 mb/d and the non-OECD expected to grow by about 2.3 mb/d. Within the
Non-OPEC+ producers lead oil supply capacity growth. Global upstream oil and gas investment is on track to increase by an estimated 11% in 2023 to USD 528 billion, compared with USD 474 billion in 2022.
- Global oil demand is projected to climb by 2.2 mb/d in 2023 to reach 102.1 mb/d, a new record. However, persistent macroeconomic headwinds, apparent in a deepening manufacturing slump, have led us to revise our 2023 growth estimate lower for the first time this year, by 220 kb/d.
- World oil supply rose 480 kb/d to 101.8 mb/d in June but is set to fall sharply this month as Saudi Arabia makes a sharp 1 mb/d voluntary output cut. For 2023, global production is forecast to increase by 1.6 mb/d to 101.5 mb/d, as non-OPEC+ expands by 1.9 mb/d.
- Refinery crude throughput estimates for 2023 and 2024 have been raised by 130 kb/d and 90 kb/d, respectively, to 82.5 mb/d and 83.5 mb/d. Higher Russian crude runs and the start-up of new refining capacity underpin the revision.
- Russian oil exports fell 600 kb/d to 7.3 mb/d in June, their lowest since March 2021. Estimated export revenues plunged by $1.5 bn to $11.8 bn – nearly half the levels of a year ago.
Oct 12, 2023 · Highlights. Raises non-OPEC 2023 liquids supply growth forecast to 1.7 mil b/d. Lowers demand forecast for OPEC crude by 100,000 b/d in 2023, 2024. Maintains global oil demand growth forecasts for 2023, 2024. OPEC is revising down estimates of demand for its crude, amid expectations of growing non-OPEC supply in 2023 and 2024. Not registered?
- Rosemary Griffin
Dec 14, 2023 · Cuts 2023 demand growth forecast by 90,000 bpd. Raises 2024 demand growth forecast by 130,000 bpd to 1.1 mbpd. Gap remains between OPEC, IEA views on 2024 oil demand growth. Says...
Sep 5, 2024 · We expect about half of the forecast for non-OPEC production growth in the next two years will come from the United States. However, we expect other countries across North America, South America, and Western Europe will also significantly increase production in 2023 and 2024.
