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1. www.natesilver.net › p › nate-silver-2024-presidentSilver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

   www.natesilver.net › p › nate-silver-2024-president

   1 day ago · This is the landing page for the 2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast. It will always contain the most recent data from the model. 1. The model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a FiveThirtyEight election forecast 2 and the methodology is largely the same, other than removing COVID-19 provisions introduced for 2020.

2. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2024-election-forecastWho Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › 2024-election-forecast

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   1 day ago · The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations. Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 16 out of 100. Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) 3 out of 100. Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes. 36 out of 100.

   • Author: G. Elliott Morris

3. Videos

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     Nate Silver Introduces The 2020 Election Forecast l FiveThirtyEight

     Aug 14, 2020

     107.2K Views

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     40:34

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     Nate Silver Unveils FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 Election Forecast

     Jun 30, 2022

     29.8K Views

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     4:49

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     Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight's Election Day Forecast

     Nov 6, 2016

     71.3K Views

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4. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu › 2024/07/19 › myMy comments on Nate Silver’s comments on the Fivethirtyeight ...

   statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu › 2024/07/19 › my

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   Jul 19, 2024 · Back in 2020 we did something similar looking at Nate’s Fivethirtyeight forecast—for example, one of our posts was called Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of the Fivethirtyeight presidential election forecast, and it featured lots of graphs and code—and I was frustrated that Nate did not seem to look at or address our criticisms. I get it—he’s a busy guy, also if he ...

5. www.usatoday.com › story › newsNate Silver election prediction: Trump 66% likely to win in ...

   www.usatoday.com › story › news

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   Jun 27, 2024 · Nate Silver, political pollster and founder of FiveThirtyEight released his highly anticipated forecasting model for the 2024 presidential election. According to Silver’s predictions, the ...

6. www.usatoday.com › story › newsNate Silver poll projects Harris, Trump split popular ...

   www.usatoday.com › story › news

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   Sep 17, 2024 · Silver's projections are a departure from other election forecasts, notably from Silver’s former company FiveThirtyEight, which as of Tuesday give Harris a 61% chance of winning the Electoral ...

7. projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › presidentPresident: general election : 2024 Polls - FiveThirtyEight

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com › polls › president

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   3 days ago · Poll type. State. Cycle. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the.

8. People also ask

   Does the FiveThirtyEight forecast predict a vote in 2024?

   • In 2020, the Fivethirtyeight forecast gave wider uncertainties for state and national vote predictions, leading to win probabilities that were closer to 50%, compared to other prominent forecasts such as the Economist’s. In 2024, the Fivethirtyeight forecast again gives wider uncertainties and a win probability that’s closer to 50%.

   My comments on Nate Silver’s comments on the Fivethirtyeight election

   statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/07/19/my-comments-on-nate-silvers-comments-on-the-fivethirtyeight-election-forecast/

   See all results for this question

   What happened to Nate Silver after leaving FiveThirtyEight?

   • From the other direction, after leaving Fivethirtyeight, Nate Silver has moved to giving narrower forecasts, more like what Elliott was producing for the Economist in 2000. I’m not saying here that Elliott and Nate are explicitly setting up their forecasts with their institutional affiliations in mind.

   My comments on Nate Silver’s comments on the Fivethirtyeight election

   statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/07/19/my-comments-on-nate-silvers-comments-on-the-fivethirtyeight-election-forecast/

   See all results for this question

   Is FiveThirtyEight predicting a win in 2024?

   • In 2024, the Fivethirtyeight forecast again gives wider uncertainties and a win probability that’s closer to 50%. So, in both campaigns, Fivethirtyeight is giving the cautious forecast—even though it has changed management!

   My comments on Nate Silver’s comments on the Fivethirtyeight election

   statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/07/19/my-comments-on-nate-silvers-comments-on-the-fivethirtyeight-election-forecast/

   See all results for this question

   Are pollster ratings ready for 2024?

   • They're back, baby — fully updated and ready to go for 2024. I’m getting excited about the launch of the Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast later this month 1 — and in preparation, I’ve recalculated the pollster ratings that the model employs.

   Pollster ratings, Silver Bulletin style - by Nate Silver

   www.natesilver.net/p/pollster-ratings-silver-bulletin

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   What is 538's 2024 presidential election forecast model?

   • 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

   Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

   projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

   See all results for this question

   What is a silver Bulletin polling average?

   • The Silver Bulletin polling averages are a little fancy. They adjust for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters and house effects. They weight more reliable polls more heavily. And they use national polls to make inferences about state polls and vice versa.

   Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

   www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

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9. www.natesilver.net › p › pollster-ratings-silverPollster ratings, Silver Bulletin style - by Nate Silver

   www.natesilver.net › p › pollster-ratings-silver

   Jun 12, 2024 · Nate Silver. Jun 12, 2024. I’m getting excited about the launch of the Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast later this month 1 — and in preparation, I’ve recalculated the pollster ratings that the model employs. If you’re interested in signing up for the election forecast — the polling averages will be free, but the ...