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2 days ago · Since 2000, polls in close states have been off by an average of 3.1 points. In 2016 and 2020, nearly all of the state-level polling averages underestimated support for Mr. Trump, sometimes by a ...
Feb 23, 2021 · Heading into the 2020 election, Democrats were favored to not only capture the presidency but also win back the Senate and retain their sizable majority in the House. Much of that came down to the ...
- Geoffrey Skelley
Nov 11, 2020 · FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages are calculated retroactively for years prior to 2020. On average, the final national polls were off by 2.3 points. That’s pretty close, but there are also ...
Jul 19, 2021 · Leading up to the 2020 election, Trump had characterized polling as “fake” and biased against his campaign, which may have led his supporters to decline participation in polling.
- Justine Chen
Nov 13, 2020 · Joe Biden won the presidential election, but it was a lot closer than the polls suggested. And there's evidence that political polling in 2020 was even further off than in 2016.
4 days ago · Poll shows the pollster that conducted the survey and the media outlet (if applicable) that either commissioned the poll or first reported on it. When available, a link to the pollster’s report is provided. Weight refers to the weight (out of 100) the poll carries in the aggregation. Weight is determined by the date of the survey, the sample ...
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Nov 5, 2020 · The disparity between state polling before the election and the election returns has once again raised questions about whether polls delivered an accurate preview of actual voting -- and whether ...
