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Does the NBER chronology identify a recession?
How do recession dates relate to NBER's recession dates?
What exactly is a recession?
When is the last month of a recession?
How long does a recession last?
Does a recession include two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP?
How does that relate to the NBER's recession dates? A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more consecutive quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. In 2001, for example, the recession did not include two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
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The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a...
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The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months. In our interpretation of this definition, we treat the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—as somewhat interchangeable.
Oct 1, 2024 · The NBER identifies months and quarters of turning points without designating a date within the period that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the period.
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Jul 21, 2022 · The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee —the official recession scorekeeper—defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that...
Jul 19, 2021 · The NBER chronology does not identify the precise moment that the economy entered a recession or expansion. In the NBER’s convention for measuring the duration of a recession, the first month of the recession is the month following the peak and the last month is the month of the trough.
The NBER is the accepted dater of the start and end of recessions in the U.S. When recessions are called by the NBER, they are generally marked by a downward trend in the following variables: real sales in manufacturing and retail, real personal income, payroll employment, and industrial production (NBER 2003).
Jun 25, 2020 · The Business Cycle Dating Committee at the NBER dates the start of each recession after a lag of several months and dates the end of a recession after an even longer lag: According to the NBER, business cycle peaks are announced an average of 7.8 months after their dating and business cycle troughs are announced an average of 15.8 months after ...
