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Jul 19, 2021 · The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession associated with the February 2020 peak. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.
According to the NBER chronology, the most recent peak occurred in February 2020. The most recent trough occurred in April 2020. The NBER's definition emphasizes that a recession involves a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
- The Month of The Peak
- The Quarter of The Peak
- Further Comments
In determining the date of the monthly peak, the committee considers a number of indicators of employment and production. The committee normally views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. This series reached a clear peak in February. The committee r...
In dating the quarterly peak, the committee relies on real GDP and real GDI as published by the BEA, and on quarterly averages of key monthly indicators. Quarterly real GDP and real GDI peaked in 2019Q4. The quarterly average of employment as measured by the payroll series rose from 2019Q4 to 2020Q1. However, the committee concluded that the specia...
The usual definition of a recession involves a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months. However, in deciding whether to identify a recession, the committee weighs the depth of the contraction, its duration, and whether economic activity declined broadly across the economy (the diffusion of the downturn). The committee recogni...
Jul 21, 2021 · The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession associated with the February 2020 peak. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.
Jul 20, 2021 · “The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession associated with the February 2020 peak. The basis for...
Aug 29, 2022 · Typically, the peak month occurs in the same quarter—but not always. For example, the NBER’s monthly peak of the pandemic-spawned recession occurred in February 2020, but their quarterly peak occurred in the fourth quarter of 2019.
Aug 24, 2021 · The Council declared on May 1, 2020, that Canada entered a recession in the first quarter of 2020, with February 2020 marking the peak of the previous business cycle expansion. Since May 2020, Canada has experienced broad economic growth, both in terms of real GDP and employment.
