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1. • 98.1% chance

     
     • There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research.
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     There’s a 98% chance of a global recession, research firm ...

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   Is there a 98% chance of a global recession?

   • And even if it comes at the expense of consumers and businesses far beyond US borders. There’s now a 98% chance of a global recession, according to research firm Ned Davis, which brings some sobering historical credibility to the table. The firm’s recession probability reading has only been this high twice before — in 2008 and 2020.

   5 signs the world is headed for a recession | CNN Business

   www.cnn.com/2022/10/02/business/global-recession-fears-explained/index.html

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   Is there a global recession?

   • Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP.

   Is a Global Recession Imminent? - World Bank Group

   www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-recession

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   Will a global recession be high in 2023?

   • The only other times that recession model was this high has been during severe economic downturns, most recently in 2020 and during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. “This indicates that the risk of a severe global recession is rising for some time in 2023,” economists at Ned Davis Research wrote in a report last Friday.

   There’s a 98% chance of a global recession, research firm warns

   www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/economy/recession-global-economy/index.html

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   How did global recessions affect global economic growth?

   • Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies. Evolution of policies. Despite the current slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries.

   Is a Global Recession Imminent? - World Bank Group

   www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-recession

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   Will a recession start in 2024?

   • In light of recent economic developments, J.P. Morgan Research has raised the probability of a U.S. and global recession starting before end-2024 to 35% — up from 25% in its mid-year outlook. “Important elements of our growth forecast are being challenged.

   The probability of a recession now stands at 35% - J.P. Morgan

   www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/recession-probability

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   Is the US in a recession?

   • The Ned Davis researchers said that although recession risks are rising, its US recession probability model is “still at rock-bottom levels.” “We do not have conclusive evidence that the US is currently in recession,” the researchers wrote in the report.

   There’s a 98% chance of a global recession, research firm warns

   www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/economy/recession-global-economy/index.html

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3. www.jpmorgan.com › insights › global-researchThe probability of a recession now stands at 35% - J.P. Morgan

   www.jpmorgan.com › insights › global-research

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   Aug 15, 2024 · There is now a 35% chance that the global economy will enter a recession by the end of 2024, and a 45% chance that it will do so by the end of 2025.

   • Author: J.P. Morgan

4. www.cnn.com › 2022/10/02 › business5 signs the world is headed for a recession | CNN Business

   www.cnn.com › 2022/10/02 › business

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   Oct 2, 2022 · There’s now a 98% chance of a global recession, according to research firm Ned Davis, which brings some sobering historical credibility to the table. The firm’s recession probability...

   • Author: Allison Morrow

   • Video Duration: 1 min

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6. www.weforum.org › agenda › 2023Recession in 2023? That depends on where you are in the world

   www.weforum.org › agenda › 2023

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   Jan 16, 2023 · The economic outlook for 2023 will feel different depending on where you are in the world, according to the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook. While the overall global picture is gloomy and almost 20% of the respondents now see an extremely likely chance of a global recession - double the number as in the previous survey in ...

7. www.weforum.org › stories › 2022Are economic headwinds blowing in the direction of a global ...

   www.weforum.org › stories › 2022

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   Oct 29, 2022 · The IMF has lowered its global growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 to 3.2% and 2.9%, respectively, suggesting that a global recession may be imminent. The Forum's Chief Economists Outlook for September 2022 surveyed economic leaders from around the world to collect insights on their reading of the global economic situation.

8. www.cnn.com › 2022/09/28 › economyThere’s a 98% chance of a global recession, research firm ...

   www.cnn.com › 2022/09/28 › economy

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   Sep 28, 2022 · There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research. The only other times that recession model was this high has been during...

9. www.bain.com › insights › global-recession-watchGlobal Recession Watch: The Latest Data - Bain & Company

   www.bain.com › insights › global-recession-watch

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   Feb 28, 2024 · US inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, fell slightly from 3.4% in December to 3.1% in January, still above the target of around 2%. The structural challenges facing Europe—from an aging population to high energy prices—present meaningful headwinds with no clear resolution in sight.

10. www.worldbank.org › en › researchIs a Global Recession Imminent? - World Bank Group

    www.worldbank.org › en › research

    • Cached

    Sep 15, 2022 · Is a Global Recession Imminent? Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession—a contraction in global per capita GDP.