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- After tracking to a better-than-expected 2.8% real GDP growth in 2023, we forecast a below-trend 0.7% pace of expansion in 2024. Among the major components of GDP, consumer spending is likely to rise at a more muted pace next year, while fiscal spending could swing from a positive contributor in 2023 to a modest drag.
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Oct 22, 2024 · The latest World Economic Outlook reports stable but underwhelming global growth, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. As monetary policy is eased amid continued disinflation, shifting gears is needed to ensure that fiscal policy is on a sustainable path and to rebuild fiscal buffers.
The Q3 2024 forecast indicates how robust consumer spending, high business investment, and lower interest rates have kept optimism about the US economy intact. However, risks like geopolitical tensions and persistently high inflation remain.
Economic growth in Canada is forecast to improve in the second half of 2024 and strengthen further in 2025 and 2026. Core inflation is expected to ease gradually, while the path of CPI inflation will be bumpy.
- The U.S. Consumer Could Begin to Bend, But Not break.
- Pressures on The Commercial Real Estate Sector Are Likely to intensify.
- Geopolitical Risks Will Remain Top of Mind.
There are numerous reasons to expect consumer spending growth to slow next year from its firm pace in 2023: diminished excess savings, plateauing wage gains, low savings rates and less pent-up demand. Additionally, the restart of student loan payments and uptick in subprime auto and millennial credit card delinquencies are emerging signs of stress ...
The higher-for-longer interest rate environment and challenges among small and regional banks are resulting in tightening of lending standards and slowing slow growth. This is occurring across all loan types, but most acutely for the commercial real estate sector, where small and regional banks have meaningful exposure. With nearly $550 billion of ...
Elevated trade tensions with China, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and conflict in the Middle East all point to continued uncertainties and risks heading into 2024. While direct U.S. economic impact has been limited thus far, the larger risk is for a supply shock of a critical commodity or good—energy, food, semiconductors—that triggers significant...
Sep 25, 2024 · The September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook explores key trends in the global economy, including the latest outlook for growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, the implications of high public debt levels, and the prospects for a new growth agenda.
Jul 16, 2024 · Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization.
Sep 24, 2024 · The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot. Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. Services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, which is complicating monetary policy normalization.
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related to: What are the economic forecasts for 2024?Economic Forecasts and Investing Trends from Our Team of Investment Professionals. Market and Investing Insights from Capital Group Investment Professionals to You.
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